Corn and Soybean: world market trends

TESEO offers a monthly report on the key markets of Corn and Soybean, the two feed ingredients that have the greatest impact on the cost of animal feed. Keep yourself informed on a monthly basis with the summary or with the full PDF report containing the projections on production, consumption, trade and stock levels processed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA-FAS) and combined with international prices (CME Group in Chicago), plus a focus on Italy. The elaborations by the TESEO team simplify data reading and allow immediate analysis.

Corn production: record forecasts for the new season

Posted on 23/05/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at the record level of 1133.78 Mio Tons, +1.3% compared to the current 2018-19 season. With a decrease in initial stocks and an increase in total use, final stocks are estimated at 314.71 Mio Tons (-3.4% y-o-y).

 WORLD | Corn Production, Utilization and Stocks

Corn production forecasts in the main countries estimate higher crops in the United States, Brazil and the EU-28, the first, third and fourth Country Producers respectively. Corn production in China, on the other hand, is expected to slow (1.3%).

 WORLD | Corn - Main producers

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +14.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Stability is expected for the new season (+ 0.8%).
Increased exports out of Argentina and Brazil during 2018-19 are expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of 2019-20.WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

Global import

Exports are mainly oriented to Mexico, South Korea, Vietnam and Iran. The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-14.9%).WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

Italian import

Data for the first two months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.6% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania. ITALY | Corn Import - Main suppliersCorn prices

EU Soybean import continues to be high

Posted on 26/04/2019

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Global Soybean production for 2018-19 is estimated at a record level of 360.6 Mio Tons. The slight increase compared to previous estimates, reflects favorable weather in Brazil, the world’s Soybean biggest exporter, in particular in the Rio Grande do Sul, where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Soybean production in Brazil for the 2018-19 season is expected at 117 Mio Tons. The production is lower (-4.1%) compared to the previous season.

U.S. Soybean export
to China-35% Jan-Feb 2019 y-o-y

Brazil’s exports are expected at 79.5 Mio Tons (+4.4% from the previous season) and only partially offset the lower exports expected for the United States (-11.9%). The data for the first two months of 2019 relating to US exports show a decrease compared to January-February 2018, with China (the main buyer) which reduced its purchases by 35%.

For the European Union, the second world Soybean importer after China, imports are expected to increase by 8.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. In the months of January and February 2019 there is a growth of 1.4% with a significant reduction in imports from Brazil and Canada, more than offset by imports from the United States (+ 147.7% compared to January-February 2018). Spain and Italy are the EU countries that have mainly increased imports from the US, respectively: + 63.9% and + 73.7%.

TESEO.clal.it - China is the world's largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it – China is the world’s largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it - In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO.clal.it – In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019
TESEO-Soybean-export-April-2019.pdf (3 MB)
TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019

Source: USDA, ISTAT, IHS

 

Ukraine boosts Corn exports

Posted on 17/04/2019

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Global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at 1107.4 Mio Tons, higher than the previous forecasts and +2.9% from last season. Brazil  Corn  production is raised,  reflecting improved yield prospects for  second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger area.

For the United States, the largest Corn producer in the world, production is expected at 366.3 Mio Tons (-1.3% compared to the previous season) and Corn used  to  produce  ethanol  is  lowered.

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

In 2018 the United States increased exports to all the main purchasing countries: Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan. Forecasts for the season (September 2018 – August 2019) show a weakening of US exports, reflecting competition from Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine.

The EU-28 is the main Corn importer and is increasingly dependent on imports from extra-EU countries. In 2018 the EU imported 21.7 Mio Tons of Corn, and exported 2.2 Mio Tons. The trade balance therefore shows -19.5 Mio Tons in 2018, while in 2017 it was -14.6 Mio Tons.

EU Corn imports grew by +32.4% in 2018 compared to 2017. 52% of the Corn comes from Ukraine, which exported to the EU 11.4 Mio Tons (+32.8%). Brazil, with a 22% share, is the second supplier (4.8 Mio Tons, +12.5%). European imports from the United States and Canada, third and fourth suppliers, have doubled compared to 2017.

TESEO.clal.it – Largest Corn exporters

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn Exporters

TESEO.clal.it - EU Corn Imports

TESEO.clal.it – EU Corn Imports

Corn Report - April 2019
Corn-Report-April-2019.pdf (1 MB)
Corn Report - April 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

EU Soybean import from the US: the boom continues

Posted on 25/03/2019

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Global Soybean production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at the record level of 360.1 Mio Tons, although slightly down (-0.3%) compared to last month forecast, reflecting a lower production decline expected in Brazil (-0.5 Mio Tons), given the dry weather conditions and the lower yields in the States of Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias.

U.S. Soybean production is expected at 123.7 Mio Tons. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is raised on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year.

TESEO.clal.it - Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

TESEO.clal.it – Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

European Union and China are the top destinations of US Soybean. With the entry into force of Chinese duties in July 2018, US exports to China dropped and recorded 8.3 Mio Tons in 2018 (-69% from 2017).

EU Soy import
from the U.S.1,25Mio TonsJan 2019 y-o-y

The agreement between Juncker and Trump in July 2018 supported US Soybean export to the European Union: +61% in 2018 compared to 2017, equal to 7.7 Mio Tons (51% of EU total Soybean import). The Netherlands and Spain are the main European buyers. Italy also significantly increased Soybean purchases from the US, for a total of 663,100 tons. Brazil is the second EU Soybean supplier, which imported 5.4 Mio Tons in 2018 (+7% compared to 2017).

The first data for 2019, relating to January, confirm the boom in European soybean imports from the US: 1.25 Mio Tons, +184% compared to January 2018, at an average CIF price of € 321.30 / ton.

TESEO.clal.it - US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it – US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it - EU Soybean import

TESEO.clal.it – EU Soybean import

Soybean Report - March 2019
TESEO-SOY-Report-March-2019.pdf (3 MB)
Soybean Report - March 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

Argentina: higher Corn supplies boost the export [Corn and Soybean - n°1/2019]

Posted on 22/02/2019

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Global Corn production for 2018-19 is estimated at 1099.61 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the December outlook. The expected decrease in the United States (-1.4%) is offset by higher yields in China (+0.5%), EU-28 (+0.5%) and Argentina (+8.2%), with abundant rainfall over the past two months boosting yield prospects.

Global Soybean production is expected at 360.99 Mio Tons, -2.2% compared to previous forecast, reflecting crop reductions in the three main Soybean producers: U.S. (-1.2%), Brazil (-4.1%) and Argentina (-0.9%), due to a reduction in harvested area that is partly offset by increased yields.

US crop yields are projected lower, and Corn and Soybean production is expected to decline more than consumption, so final stocks are forecast at -2.6% for Corn and -4.7% for Soy. There is a reduction in the Corn used for ethanol.

Argentina+38%Corn export (outlook 2018-19 from previous season)

On the Corn export side, record levels for Argentina (29 Mio Tons, +38%) and for Ukraine (28.5 Mio Tons, +58%) are expected for the 2018-19 season. Global exports are expected to increase by +14.4% compared to the previous season. Soybean exports are forecast slightly higher (+0.9%), with greater exports from Brazil and Argentina, which offset the decline for the United States (-11.9% compared to the 2017-18 season).

Forecasts of global Soybean ending stocks have been revised downwards, reflecting the historical balance sheets revisions for Argentina and Brazil, however the level remains high (106.72 Mio Tons).

Source: USDA

TESEO.clal.it - Global Corn exports are expected to increase +14.4% in 2018-19

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn exports are expected to increase +14.4% in 2018-19

Corn & Soybeans - February 2019: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soy_.pdf (4 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - February 2019: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Weather supports Soybean Supply from Brazil [Corn and Soybean - n°12/2018]

Posted on 21/12/2018

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Global Corn production for 2018-19 is forecast at 1,099.9 Mio Tons, +0.1% from November projections, with increases for Ukraine (record production forecast at 35 Mio Tons), and for the European Union, especially for Romania.

U.S. most recent data on ethanol production show a decrease, therefore lower Corn used for ethanol is expected. With no production and export changes, ending stocks are projected at 45.2 Mio Tons, higher from last month.

Global 2018-19 Soybean production is forecast at 369.2 Mio Tons, +0.5% from November forecast. The increase is mainly due to greater Soybean production for Brazil, the second largest Soybean Producer: +1.2% from previous outlook, +1.4% from previous season, reflecting favorable weather conditions in the Center-West region.

Brazil+6.3%Soybean export (outlook 2018-19 from previous season)

Large competitive supplies in Brazil are expected to boost the export: +5.2% compared to previous estimates,  +6.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. As a result, exports from Argentina, Canada and Paraguay decreased and their stocks increased.

U.S. Soybean ending stock are projected at a record 26 Mio Tons, with production and export unchanged.

Source: USDA

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - December 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-DEC1.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - December 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

China revised Corn data: tripled stocks [Corn and Soybean - n°11/2018]

Posted on 16/11/2018

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68%of Corn stocks are held by China   (forecast 2018-19)

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (N.B.S.) in October revised its supply estimates for Corn in China from 2007-08 through 2017-18. For the 2018-19 season, beginning stocks are forecast at 223 Mio Tons (+180% from October estimates), and ending stocks are expected at 207 Mio Tons (+180%). China’s stocks are forecast to account for 68% of global Corn stocks (followed by the U.S. with a share of 14%).

Global Corn stocks reflect this revision and are estimated at 308 Mio Tons, +93% compared to last month’s estimates. US stocks, on the other hand, are expected to decrease (-4.2%).

Excluding China, world production is almost unchanged, in fact higher production in Argentina, Kenya, Russia and Moldova offset the expected decreases in the EU (in particular in Hungary, Poland and Germany) and in the USA (-1%, on a reduced yield forecast).

The 2018-19 global Soybean production is reduced -2% from October estimates. Lower production for the United States and Argentina is partly offset by increases for China, India and Ukraine.

U.S. Soybean production is forecast -1.9% on lower yield, which is projected at 52.1 bushels per acre, -1 bushel.

South America is expected to capture more of

China’s Soybean market

U.S. Soybean exports are affected by lower imports projected for China, due to the customs tariffs imposed by China, and are expected at -7.8%. In fact, China is forecast to import less Soybean (-4.4%). South America is expected to capture more of China’s Soybean market while the U.S. is likely to capture more share in other markets.

U.S. Corn exports are reduced -1% based on expectations of increased competition from Ukraine.

World - Corn Ending stocks | Total and % share

World – Corn Ending stocks | Total and % share

Source: USDA

 

Corn & Soybeans - November 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-NOV18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - November 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

 

U.S. Corn and Soy production slips [Corn and Soybean - n°10/2018]

Posted on 19/10/2018

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Starting from the report of November 2018, the data show a significative variation, following the large revision for Corn data in China, made by Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.

The global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is expected to decrease slightly (1068.3 Mio Tons, -0.1%) compared to the estimates made in September, but remains higher than the previous season (+2.8%). The world Soybean production, instead, is confirmed at the record level of 369.5 Mio Tons, +9.5% compared to the 2017-18 season.

In the U.S. is forecast a reduction in yields for Corn and in harvested area for Soybean, resulting in a lower production of the two crops compared to previous forecasts (Corn: -0.3%, Soybean: -0.1%). Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks.

An increase in exports for the 2018-19 season is projected for the 4 main exporters of Corn (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which will overall increase their exports by 14.7% compared to 2017-18 season. U.S exports are supported by a competitive price and reduced exports for Russia.

For the 2 main exporters of Soybean (Brazil and United States), lower exports are expected for 2018-19 season, y-o-y, however Argentina should offset the decrease by recovering from the previous season’s drought.

 

Corn and Soybean | Global producers by share

Corn and Soybean | Global producers by share

WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Corn Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - October 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-OCT18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - October 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Chinese Soybean import slows down, while production increases [Corn and Soybean - n ° 9/2018]

Posted on 20/09/2018

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The Global Corn and Soybean production is expected to increase in the season 2018-19, respectively of +0.7% (1.069 Mio T) and +0.6% (369.32 Mio T), compared to August estimates.

In the United States, the world’s largest producer of Corn and Soybean, yields are forecasted higher, resulting into an increment in crops: +1.6% for Corn and +2.3% for Soybean.

+8.3%Corn import in EU-28 (forecast 2018-19)

Corn production is higher in the EU-28, reflecting the increases for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and France. The EU-28 outlook, the largest global Corn importer (13% of total share), is for a higher domestic demand, and imports are raised by +8.3% compared to 2017-18 season.

WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

WORLD | Corn Top Importers – Yearly trend

In China, the fourth world producer of Soy, Soybean production is expected higher (+3.4%). Imports are reduced 1 Mio t to 94 Mio t as slower growth in protein meal demand and lower crush in 2017/18 continue into the next marketing year, reducing the expectations of record imports estimated in May 2018.

Global Corn Ending stocks are forecasted at 157.03 Mio T, with an increase if compared to the last outlook, but they are still below the level of the previous five seasons. Also Global Soybean stocks are raised, reaching a record level of 108.26 Mio t.

WORLD | Soybean Top Importers - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Importers – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - September 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-SEP-2018.pdf (3 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - September 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Corn and Soybean yields increase in the U.S. [Corn and Soybean - n°8/2018]

Posted on 16/08/2018

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Global Corn and Soybean production for the season 2018-19 is projected higher in comparison with July estimates, mainly on the higher production expected in the U.S., the world largest producer of Corn and currently also of Soybean. Global production is expected at 1061 Mio t of Corn, and 367 Mio t of Soybean, respectively +0.6% and +6.4% from the latest projections.

U.S. Corn supply is projected to rise faster than use


In the United States, expected growth is +2.5% for Corn and +2.1% for Soybean. Following the first survey-based Corn yield forecast, an increase is expected for many Corn Belt states: Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota. Corn supply is projected to rise faster than use. Exports are raised reflecting expectations of reduced competition from Brazil. Brazil Corn production is lowered (-1.6%) based on updated estimates for second-crop Corn area.
For 2018-19, the following yields are expected in the U.S.:

  • Corn: 178.4 bushels per acre (11.33 tons per hectare)
  • Soybean: 51.6 bushels per acre (3.51 tons per hectare)

-2.8% EU Corn production (Forecast 2018-19)


EU Corn production is lowered (-2.8% from July outlook), mostly reflecting reductions for France and Germany that are partially offset by increases for Romania and Bulgaria. EU Corn imports are expected to reach record levels (18 Mio t).

WORLD | Map of Corn Yields

WORLD | Map of Corn Yields

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - August 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
edited_Mais-Soia_AUG18.pdf (6 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - August 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

China’s duties limit U.S. Soybean export [Corn and Soybean - n°07/2018]

Posted on 18/07/2018

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Global production for the season 2018-19 is projected higher both for Corn and Soybean, respectively at 1054.3 Mio t (+0.2% from June outlook) and 359.5 Mio t (+1.2%).

Corn production increased in the U.S. (361.5 Mio t, +1.4%), on higher planted and harvested areas, and EU-28 (61.5 Mio t, +0.8%). These increases more than offset the reduction expected for Canada and Russia, due to lower area and yield.
Soybean production is raised in the main producing countries: respectively +0.7% (117.3 Mio t) and +2.1% (120.5 Mio t) in the US and Brazil, both on higher harvested area, +1.8% in Argentina (57 Mio t) and +2.8% in China (14.5 Mio t).

-10.9%

U.S. Soybean Export (Forecast 2018-19)

Corn global trade outlook is for a reduction in export from Russia, more than offset by increased export for the United States (56.5 Mio t, +6%) based on the expectations of lower competition from Argentina and Brazil.
Soybean export is reduced for the U.S. (55.5 Mio t, -10.9%), reflecting the impact of China’s import duties. Despite losing market share in China, Soybean exports from the U.S. are supported in other markets, as lower prices increase demand and market share.
This decrease is partly offset by an increase for Brazil (75 Mio t, +2.9%), where planted area is expected to expand with higher prices resulting from increased trade with China.

+12.9%

Global Soybean Stocks (Forecast 2018-19)

Global Corn ending stocks are lowered from last month (152 Mio t, -1.8%), with the largest declines for China, EU-28, Mexico and the U.S., due to a higher domestic consumption.
On the contrary, Soybean stocks are forecasted higher at 98.3 Mio t (+12.9%), mainly reflecting the increase in the United States (15.8 Mio t, +50.6%).

The tariff that China imposed on U.S. Soybean is expected to cause higher prices for Soybeans in China and slower protein meal consumption growth. Lower demand and a year-over-year drawdown in stocks for China are forecast to result in reduced crush and a decline for imports to 95 Mio t.

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - July 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-JUL18.pdf (520 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - July 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

 

Lower estimates for U.S. Corn and Soybean ending stocks [Corn and Soybean - n°6/2018]

Posted on 18/06/2018

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Global Corn production for the season 2018-19 is projected at 1052.42 Mio Tons, -0.3% from May outlook, but it is unchanged in the largest producing Countries. Compared to the 2017-18 season, increases are expected for China (+4.2%), Brazil (+12.9%) and Argentina (+24.2%).

Global Soybean production is projected at 355.24 Mio Tons, slightly higher from last month, mainly on higher production for Brazil, that accounts for 33% of milk production (the same share as the U.S.). Brazil’s export is also expected to grow.

-19.7%

Global Corn ending stocks (Forecast 2018-19)

U.S. Corn outlook is for greater Corn used for ethanol production and lower beginning stocks, reflecting the exports during the month of April 2018, that bested the prior monthly shipment record set in November 1989.

Global Corn ending stocks for 2018-19 are estimated at 154.69 Mio Tons, -19.7% compared to the current season, with decreases for China and the US, which together hold 65% of world stocks.

World - Corn Ending Stocks

World – Corn Ending Stocks (Forecast 2018-19)

Also the global Soybean ending stocks are forecast lower (-5.9%) compared to the ongoing season, mainly reflecting the decrease expected in the U.S.  (-23.8%). However, ending stocks are higher if compared to the forecasts made in May (+ 0.4%), due to the growth of the ending stocks expected in Brazil.

In response to the tariffs President Trump placed on Chinese good, due to come into effect on July 6, China retaliated with a long list of 25% tariffs including corn, soybeans and several dairy products. TESEO will track the development of this situation, through specific focus and analysis, in the coming Corn & Soybean reports.

WORLD | Soybean - Main importers

WORLD | Soybean – Main importers (Forecast 2018-19)

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - June 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean.pdf (453 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - June 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Record Soybean import for China – New season outlook [Corn and Soybean - n°5/2018]

Posted on 16/05/2018

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The estimates for the new season 2018-19, starting in September for Corn and in October for Soybean, forecast increasing production and use and decreasing ending stocks from 2017-18.

Corn production is forecast at 1056.07 Mio Tons (+1.9% from a year ago) and Soybean production is expected to reach record high (354.54 Mio Tons, +5.3%).

Argentina+43.6% Soybean production expected in 2018-19

U.S. Corn and Soybean crops are projected down from last year with a lower forecast area and yield. This decrease will be more than offset by significant increases in other countries: China and Brazil, the second and the third largest Corn producers, are expected to increase the Corn production respectively +4.2% and +10.3%. Soybean production for Argentina, the third largest Corn producer and exporter, is projected +43.6% mostly due to recovery from drought.

Global Corn exports are projected higher (+4.6%) from the current season, with the largest increases for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. The U.S. will be affected by the competition from Ukraine and Russia and are expected to decrease the Corn exports (-5.6%). Notable forecast increases in Corn imports include Mexico, Vietnam and Egypt.

China65% share in world total Soybean import

Global Soybean exports are growing every year. The 2018-19 export forecast is +7% compared to 2017-18. The U.S. are expected to recover the lower export of the current year and to increase +10.9%. China, with a share of 65% of global Soybean import, is projected to increase again the imports, reaching a record 103 Mio Tons, more than doubling the volume compared to 10 years ago.

Source: USDA

CLAL.it - Soybean Top Importers

CLAL.it – Soybean Top Importers

Corn & Soybeans - May 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean.pdf (315 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - May 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Record high for Soybean production in Brazil [Corn and Soybean - n°4/2018]

Posted on 18/04/2018

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Global Production for the season 2017-18 is projected lower both for Corn (1036.1 Mio t, -0.5% from March outlook) and Soybean (334.8 Mio t, -1.8%).

115 Mio t of Soybean production in Brazil(outlook 2017-18)

Corn production is down in Argentina (33 Mio t, -8.3%), on reduction to both harvested area and yield, Paraguay and Brazil (92 Mio t, -2.6%), reflecting expectations of lower second-crop area. These decreases more than offset the increase for Mexico and South Africa.
Also Soybean production is lowered in Argentina (40 Mio t, -14.9%), again on reduced harvested area and yields, India and Uruguay, partly balanced by a higher production for Brazil (115 Mio t, +1.8%). Production in Brazil is forecast at a record level, on higher projected yields for Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná, due to beneficial rainfall during the growing season.

Corn Export is expected lower for Brazil (33 Mio t, -5.7%) and Argentina (24 Mio t, -4%), with reduced export competition from these countries expected to impact the first half of 2018-19 marketing year in the United States. Corn imports are lowered for Iran, Malaysia, Taiwan, Mexico and Chile, with partially offsetting increases for Bangladesh and Turkey.
Soybean exports are reduced as higher exports for Brazil (70.5 Mio t, -3.5%), Russia, and Ukraine are balanced by lower exports for Argentina (4.2 Mio t, -38.2%) and Uruguay.

Global Corn ending stocks are lowered (197.8 Mio t, -0.7%), with the largest declines for Argentina (4 Mio t, -24.5%), Paraguay, and Brazil (10.9 Mio t, -4.4%) more than offsetting the increase for United States (55.4 Mio t, +2.6%), on lower food, seed and industrial use.
Also Soybean ending stocks are down (90.8 Mio t, -3.8%) with reductions mainly for Argentina (28.6 Mio t, -8.4%), Brazil (21.1Mio t, -2.8%) and the EU (1.1 Mio t, -11.7%).

Soybean Production share

Soybean Production share (outlook 2017-18)

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - April 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean.pdf (1 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - April 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Argentina: dryness affects yields for Corn and Soybean [Corn and Soybean - n°2/2018]

Posted on 16/02/2018

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Global production for the season 2017-18 is projected lower both for Corn and Soybean, respectively at 1041.7 Mio t (-0.3% from January outlook) and 346.9 Mio t (-0.5%).

Corn production decreased for Ukraine (24.1 Mio t, -3.5%), based on the latest official statistics, and Argentina (39 Mio t, -7.1%), where persistent heat and dryness during January and early February reduced yield prospects in key central growing areas.
In Argentina also Soybean production is lowered (54 Mio t, -3.6%) due to warmth and dryness, and other reductions are expected in Paraguay, Bolivia, India, Ukraine, and South Africa. Contrariwise, Soybean production in Brazil is projected higher (112 Mio t, +1.8%), as favorable weather throughout the growing season has raised yield prospects.

Corn Export is raised for Brazil (35 Mio t, +2.9%) and United States (52 Mio t, +6.5%), reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Argentina (27.5 Mio t, -5.2%) and Ukraine (20 Mio t, -2.4%).
Soybean export is expected lower for the U.S. (57.1 Mio t, -2.8%), reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil (69 Mio t, +3%).

Global Corn ending stocks are down from last month (203.1 Mio t, -1.7%), mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina (5.3 Mio t, -16%), Ukraine (0.89 Mio t, -11.9%) and U.S. (59.7 Mio t, -5%) that more than offset increases for Mexico, Brazil, and Turkey.
Global Soybean stocks decreased (98.1 Mio t, -0.4%) reflecting the lower expectations for Argentina (35 Mio t, -3.2%), Bolivia, Paraguay, and India more than offsetting an increase for the United States (14.4 Mio t, +12.7%).

World map of Corn Yields variations

World map of Corn Yields variations | Top 10 producers

World map of Soybean Yields variations

World map of Soybean Yields variations | Top 10 producers

Corn & Soybeans - February 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-FEB18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - February 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

 

U.S. Soybean export projected down on strong competition from South America [Corn and Soybean - n°12/2017]

Posted on 15/12/2017

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Global Corn production for the season 2017-18 is projected higher at 1044.7 Mio t (+0.1% from November outlook), while the global Soybean production is projected slightly lower at 348.5 Mio t (-0.1%).

Corn production is raised in China (215.9 Mio t, +0.4%), EU-28 (60.1 Mio t, +0.8%), Laos and Guatemala, more than offsetting a reduction for Russia. EU-28 Corn production is higher, mostly reflecting an increase for Romania that more than offsets declines for several countries.
Soybean production is steady in the main producing countries.

Corn exports are lowered for Russia, but raised for EU-28 (2 Mio t, +33.3%) which, according to the latest weekly trade data, is however recording low export volumes in the current season.

Soybean export is lowered for Canada and for the U.S. (60.6 Mio t, -1.1%) on stronger-than-expected competition from Argentina (8.5 Mio t, +6.2%) and Brazil (65.5 Mio t, +0.8%).

Global Corn ending stocks are raised, mainly reflecting increases for China (79.6 Mio t, +1.1%), EU-28 (6.8 Mio t, +5.7%) and Brazil (9.4 Mio t, +3.3%), that more than offset declines for Egypt (2 Mio t, -10%), Mexico (4.5 Mio t, -3.6%) and United States.
U.S. Corn ending stocks are down (61.9 Mio t, -2%), due to an increase in Corn used to produce ethanol following the higher Sorghum export to China that reduced the amount of Sorghum used to produce ethanol.

Global Soybean ending stocks are projected slightly higher at 98.3 Mio t (+0.4%). The increase for the U.S. (12.1 Mio t, +4.8%), due to the lower expectations for Soybean export, is more than offset by the decrease for Brazil (21.9 Mio t, -1.8%) and Argentina (37.2 Mio t, -1%).

Soybean Top Exporters - Yearly trend

Soybean Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - December 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-DIC-EN.pdf (601 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - December 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

Mexico’s Corn demand is growing [Corn and Soybean - n°11/2017]

Posted on 16/11/2017

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Global production for the season 2017-18 is projected higher both for Corn and Soybean, respectively at 1043.9 Mio t (+0.5% from October outlook) and 347.9 Mio t (+0.2%).

Corn production increased in the U.S. (370.3 Mio t, +2.1% from last month), on a record high yield (11.01 MT/HA), and EU-28, more than offsetting the decrease for Ukraine (25 Mio t, -7.4%), Russia and Vietnam. The projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are reduced based on reported harvest results to date.

Soybean production is expected slightly lower in the U.S. (120.44 Mio t, -0.1%), due to a fractionally lower yield, while in Brazil Soybean production is increased 1 Mio t to 108 Mio t (+0.9%) on higher reported area for Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.

Corn export is lowered for Ukraine (20.5 Mio t, -4.6%), but raised for the U.S. (48.9 Mio t, +4.1%), reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects. Import is raised for Mexico (16.5 Mio t,+6.5%) and Canada, but lowered for South Korea. If realized, Mexico would be the main Corn importer in the 2017-18 season.
Soybean export is expected higher for Brazil (65 Mio t, +1.6%)  and Paraguay (6 Mio t, +9.1%), while increased the Soybean Import for China (97 Mio t, +2.1%).

Global Corn ending stocks are raised (203.9 Mio t, +1.4%), mainly reflecting the increase for U.S. (63.2 Mio t, +6.3%), EU and Argentina, more than offsetting a decline expected for China (78.7 Mio t, -0.7%), Vietnam, Canada and Ukraine.
Also Soybean ending stocks are up from last month (97.9 Mio t, +1.9%), mostly reflecting increases for China (20.64 Mio t, +5.1%), Argentina and Brazil.

Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

Corn Top Importers – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - November 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-NOV-17-EN1.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - November 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

Lower Corn stocks in China, but higher in the U.S. [Corn and Soybean - n°10/2017]

Posted on 17/10/2017

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Global Corn production for the season 2017-18 is projected higher at 1038.8 Mio t (+0.6% from September outlook), while the global Soybean production is projected slightly down at 347.9 Mio t (-0.2%).

Corn production is raised in the U.S. (362.7 Mio t, +0.7% from last month), Nigeria, Turkey and Mozambico. This increase is partially offset by a reduction for Russia and Ukraine (27 Mio t, -1.81%), on reduced yields, and for other countries as Ethiopia and Tanzania.
In Russia and Ukraine it is expected a decrease also for Soybean production, not fully balanced by the increase projected for China (14.2 Mio t, +1.4%),  and Mexico (0.5 Mio t, +14.3%).

Corn export is projected higher for Mexico and Argentina (29 Mio t, +1.8%), the third global exporter, which recorded a constant growing trend since the 2013-14 season). Corn export is lowered, as the supply, in Russia and Ukraine (21.5 Mio t, -2.27%), for which is expected also a reduction in Soybean Export.

Global Corn ending stocks are reduced (201 Mio t, -0.7%) reflecting the decrease for Mexico and China (79.2 Mio t, -2.5%), mainly due to the higher food, seed and industrial use for Corn, partially offset by an increase for Argentina (6.07 Mio t, +32.8%), Turkey and USA (59.4 Mio t, +0.2%).

Also Soybean ending stocks are down (96 Mio t, -1.5%) with reductions for Brazil and U.S. (11.7 Mio t, -9.4%). If realized, ending stocks relative to use would be the highest since 2006-07 in the U.S..

CLAL.it - Corn and Soybean Ending stocks

CLAL.it – Corn and Soybean Ending stocks

Corn & Soybeans - October 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-EN-OTT-2017.pdf (538 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - October 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

Increasing EU demand for Corn [Corn and Soybean - n°9/2017]

Posted on 15/09/2017

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Global Corn production for 2017-18 (season started on September 1st) is expected to be 1032.63 Mio t, slightly down (-0.1%) compared to August estimates. Expected increases in the United States, Argentina and Mexico are offset by lower production in the European Union and Ukraine.

The U.S. crop is estimated at 360.30 Mio t (+0.2%). Corn used for ethanol is projected down 25 million bushels, based on observed usage during 2016-17 and expectations of lower exports. With supply increasing and use falling, Corn ending stocks are +2.7% from last month. Global Corn stocks are lower from the last 3 seasons, with a significant reduction in China (-19.8%), the country with the highest share of stocks.

Export is projected higher for Ukraine (+2.3%), the fourth largest Corn exporter, after the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. Ukraine’s relatively large exportable supplies and logistical advantages are expected to fill demand for imported Corn in the EU.

Ukraine is the largest Italy’s Corn supplier: 1060.7 t in the first half of 2017.

Global Soybean production for 2017-18 (new season will start on October 1st) is projected at 348.44 Mio t, +0.3% from August estimates, mainly reflecting a larger crop in the U.S. (120.59 Mio t). With increased supplies and lower prices, U.S. Soybean exports are raised +1.1% leaving ending stocks unchanged.

In China, world’s largest Soybean importer, imports are expected to increase further: +1.06% from last month’s estimates, +3.26% from the previous season.

EU-28 | cumulate weekly import of Maize

EU-28 | cumulate weekly import of Maize

Corn & Soybeans - September 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-EN-SET-2017.pdf (557 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - September 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

Corn Belt production slows [Corn and Soybean - n°8/2017]

Posted on 17/08/2017

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in the WASDE report of August 2017, shows for the season 2017-18 the estimates of a slightly decreasing global production for Corn (1033.5 Mio t, -0.3% from July outlook) and an increasing global production for Soybean (347.36 Mio t, +0.7%).

Corn production is reduced for the U.S. (359.5 Mio t, -0.7%), mainly on the lower estimates for many Corn Belt states (South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois). Corn production is expected down also for the EU-28 (60 Mio t, -2.6%) and Canada (13.9 Mio t, -3.5%), partially offset by an increase for Russia.
Soybean production is projected higher in the U.S. (119.2 Mio t, +2.8%), mainly on increased yields, while is expected lower in Canada, due to the dry weather in the Canadian Prairies and excessive rainfall in eastern regions.

Corn exports are lowered for the U.S. (46.99 Mio t, -1.3%), the EU (1.5 Mio t, -34.8%), Serbia and Canada (1.3 Mio t, -13%), more than offsetting an increase for Ukraine (21.5 Mio t, +4.9%) and Russia.
Lower U.S. Corn exports reflect the increased competitiveness of supplies in Brazil and Argentina, while U.S. Soybean exports are projected up 1.5 Mio t, partly balanced by lower Argentina shipments.

Global ending stocks are almost unchanged for Corn, while are projected higher for Soybean (97.78 Mio t, +4.5%), based on increased ending stocks in the U.S. (12.9 Mio t, +3.3%), Argentina (36.7 Mio t, +10.9%) and Brazil (24.02 Mio t, +3%), the three largest Soybean exporters (88% of global export).

We are constantly improving the “Corn and Soybean” report to reach consumer interests. Would you like to find any other information? Write to newsteam@clal.it!

Corn and Soybean main exporters – share on total export (forecast 2017-18)

Corn and Soybean main exporters – share on total export (forecast 2017-18)

Corn & Soybeans - August 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-AGO-17-EN.pdf (580 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - August 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Corn production: record forecasts for the new season

Posted on 23/05/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at the record level of 1133.78 Mio Tons, +1.3% compared to the current 2018-19 season. With a decrease in initial stocks and an increase in total use, final stocks are estimated at 314.71 Mio Tons (-3.4% y-o-y).

 WORLD | Corn Production, Utilization and Stocks

Corn production forecasts in the main countries estimate higher crops in the United States, Brazil and the EU-28, the first, third and fourth Country Producers respectively. Corn production in China, on the other hand, is expected to slow (1.3%).

 WORLD | Corn - Main producers

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +14.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Stability is expected for the new season (+ 0.8%).
Increased exports out of Argentina and Brazil during 2018-19 are expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of 2019-20.WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

Global import

Exports are mainly oriented to Mexico, South Korea, Vietnam and Iran. The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-14.9%).WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

Italian import

Data for the first two months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.6% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania. ITALY | Corn Import - Main suppliersCorn prices

EU Soybean import continues to be high

Posted on 26/04/2019

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Global Soybean production for 2018-19 is estimated at a record level of 360.6 Mio Tons. The slight increase compared to previous estimates, reflects favorable weather in Brazil, the world’s Soybean biggest exporter, in particular in the Rio Grande do Sul, where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Soybean production in Brazil for the 2018-19 season is expected at 117 Mio Tons. The production is lower (-4.1%) compared to the previous season.

U.S. Soybean export
to China-35% Jan-Feb 2019 y-o-y

Brazil’s exports are expected at 79.5 Mio Tons (+4.4% from the previous season) and only partially offset the lower exports expected for the United States (-11.9%). The data for the first two months of 2019 relating to US exports show a decrease compared to January-February 2018, with China (the main buyer) which reduced its purchases by 35%.

For the European Union, the second world Soybean importer after China, imports are expected to increase by 8.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. In the months of January and February 2019 there is a growth of 1.4% with a significant reduction in imports from Brazil and Canada, more than offset by imports from the United States (+ 147.7% compared to January-February 2018). Spain and Italy are the EU countries that have mainly increased imports from the US, respectively: + 63.9% and + 73.7%.

TESEO.clal.it - China is the world's largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it – China is the world’s largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it - In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO.clal.it – In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019
TESEO-Soybean-export-April-2019.pdf (3 MB)
TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019

Source: USDA, ISTAT, IHS

 

Ukraine boosts Corn exports

Posted on 17/04/2019

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Global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at 1107.4 Mio Tons, higher than the previous forecasts and +2.9% from last season. Brazil  Corn  production is raised,  reflecting improved yield prospects for  second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger area.

For the United States, the largest Corn producer in the world, production is expected at 366.3 Mio Tons (-1.3% compared to the previous season) and Corn used  to  produce  ethanol  is  lowered.

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

In 2018 the United States increased exports to all the main purchasing countries: Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan. Forecasts for the season (September 2018 – August 2019) show a weakening of US exports, reflecting competition from Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine.

The EU-28 is the main Corn importer and is increasingly dependent on imports from extra-EU countries. In 2018 the EU imported 21.7 Mio Tons of Corn, and exported 2.2 Mio Tons. The trade balance therefore shows -19.5 Mio Tons in 2018, while in 2017 it was -14.6 Mio Tons.

EU Corn imports grew by +32.4% in 2018 compared to 2017. 52% of the Corn comes from Ukraine, which exported to the EU 11.4 Mio Tons (+32.8%). Brazil, with a 22% share, is the second supplier (4.8 Mio Tons, +12.5%). European imports from the United States and Canada, third and fourth suppliers, have doubled compared to 2017.

TESEO.clal.it – Largest Corn exporters

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn Exporters

TESEO.clal.it - EU Corn Imports

TESEO.clal.it – EU Corn Imports

Corn Report - April 2019
Corn-Report-April-2019.pdf (1 MB)
Corn Report - April 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

EU Soybean import from the US: the boom continues

Posted on 25/03/2019

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Global Soybean production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at the record level of 360.1 Mio Tons, although slightly down (-0.3%) compared to last month forecast, reflecting a lower production decline expected in Brazil (-0.5 Mio Tons), given the dry weather conditions and the lower yields in the States of Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias.

U.S. Soybean production is expected at 123.7 Mio Tons. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is raised on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year.

TESEO.clal.it - Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

TESEO.clal.it – Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

European Union and China are the top destinations of US Soybean. With the entry into force of Chinese duties in July 2018, US exports to China dropped and recorded 8.3 Mio Tons in 2018 (-69% from 2017).

EU Soy import
from the U.S.1,25Mio TonsJan 2019 y-o-y

The agreement between Juncker and Trump in July 2018 supported US Soybean export to the European Union: +61% in 2018 compared to 2017, equal to 7.7 Mio Tons (51% of EU total Soybean import). The Netherlands and Spain are the main European buyers. Italy also significantly increased Soybean purchases from the US, for a total of 663,100 tons. Brazil is the second EU Soybean supplier, which imported 5.4 Mio Tons in 2018 (+7% compared to 2017).

The first data for 2019, relating to January, confirm the boom in European soybean imports from the US: 1.25 Mio Tons, +184% compared to January 2018, at an average CIF price of € 321.30 / ton.

TESEO.clal.it - US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it – US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it - EU Soybean import

TESEO.clal.it – EU Soybean import

Soybean Report - March 2019
TESEO-SOY-Report-March-2019.pdf (3 MB)
Soybean Report - March 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

Argentina: higher Corn supplies boost the export [Corn and Soybean - n°1/2019]

Posted on 22/02/2019

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Global Corn production for 2018-19 is estimated at 1099.61 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the December outlook. The expected decrease in the United States (-1.4%) is offset by higher yields in China (+0.5%), EU-28 (+0.5%) and Argentina (+8.2%), with abundant rainfall over the past two months boosting yield prospects.

Global Soybean production is expected at 360.99 Mio Tons, -2.2% compared to previous forecast, reflecting crop reductions in the three main Soybean producers: U.S. (-1.2%), Brazil (-4.1%) and Argentina (-0.9%), due to a reduction in harvested area that is partly offset by increased yields.

US crop yields are projected lower, and Corn and Soybean production is expected to decline more than consumption, so final stocks are forecast at -2.6% for Corn and -4.7% for Soy. There is a reduction in the Corn used for ethanol.

Argentina+38%Corn export (outlook 2018-19 from previous season)

On the Corn export side, record levels for Argentina (29 Mio Tons, +38%) and for Ukraine (28.5 Mio Tons, +58%) are expected for the 2018-19 season. Global exports are expected to increase by +14.4% compared to the previous season. Soybean exports are forecast slightly higher (+0.9%), with greater exports from Brazil and Argentina, which offset the decline for the United States (-11.9% compared to the 2017-18 season).

Forecasts of global Soybean ending stocks have been revised downwards, reflecting the historical balance sheets revisions for Argentina and Brazil, however the level remains high (106.72 Mio Tons).

Source: USDA

TESEO.clal.it - Global Corn exports are expected to increase +14.4% in 2018-19

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn exports are expected to increase +14.4% in 2018-19

Corn & Soybeans - February 2019: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soy_.pdf (4 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - February 2019: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Weather supports Soybean Supply from Brazil [Corn and Soybean - n°12/2018]

Posted on 21/12/2018

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Global Corn production for 2018-19 is forecast at 1,099.9 Mio Tons, +0.1% from November projections, with increases for Ukraine (record production forecast at 35 Mio Tons), and for the European Union, especially for Romania.

U.S. most recent data on ethanol production show a decrease, therefore lower Corn used for ethanol is expected. With no production and export changes, ending stocks are projected at 45.2 Mio Tons, higher from last month.

Global 2018-19 Soybean production is forecast at 369.2 Mio Tons, +0.5% from November forecast. The increase is mainly due to greater Soybean production for Brazil, the second largest Soybean Producer: +1.2% from previous outlook, +1.4% from previous season, reflecting favorable weather conditions in the Center-West region.

Brazil+6.3%Soybean export (outlook 2018-19 from previous season)

Large competitive supplies in Brazil are expected to boost the export: +5.2% compared to previous estimates,  +6.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. As a result, exports from Argentina, Canada and Paraguay decreased and their stocks increased.

U.S. Soybean ending stock are projected at a record 26 Mio Tons, with production and export unchanged.

Source: USDA

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - December 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-DEC1.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - December 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

China revised Corn data: tripled stocks [Corn and Soybean - n°11/2018]

Posted on 16/11/2018

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68%of Corn stocks are held by China   (forecast 2018-19)

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (N.B.S.) in October revised its supply estimates for Corn in China from 2007-08 through 2017-18. For the 2018-19 season, beginning stocks are forecast at 223 Mio Tons (+180% from October estimates), and ending stocks are expected at 207 Mio Tons (+180%). China’s stocks are forecast to account for 68% of global Corn stocks (followed by the U.S. with a share of 14%).

Global Corn stocks reflect this revision and are estimated at 308 Mio Tons, +93% compared to last month’s estimates. US stocks, on the other hand, are expected to decrease (-4.2%).

Excluding China, world production is almost unchanged, in fact higher production in Argentina, Kenya, Russia and Moldova offset the expected decreases in the EU (in particular in Hungary, Poland and Germany) and in the USA (-1%, on a reduced yield forecast).

The 2018-19 global Soybean production is reduced -2% from October estimates. Lower production for the United States and Argentina is partly offset by increases for China, India and Ukraine.

U.S. Soybean production is forecast -1.9% on lower yield, which is projected at 52.1 bushels per acre, -1 bushel.

South America is expected to capture more of

China’s Soybean market

U.S. Soybean exports are affected by lower imports projected for China, due to the customs tariffs imposed by China, and are expected at -7.8%. In fact, China is forecast to import less Soybean (-4.4%). South America is expected to capture more of China’s Soybean market while the U.S. is likely to capture more share in other markets.

U.S. Corn exports are reduced -1% based on expectations of increased competition from Ukraine.

World - Corn Ending stocks | Total and % share

World – Corn Ending stocks | Total and % share

Source: USDA

 

Corn & Soybeans - November 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-NOV18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - November 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

 

U.S. Corn and Soy production slips [Corn and Soybean - n°10/2018]

Posted on 19/10/2018

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Starting from the report of November 2018, the data show a significative variation, following the large revision for Corn data in China, made by Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.

The global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is expected to decrease slightly (1068.3 Mio Tons, -0.1%) compared to the estimates made in September, but remains higher than the previous season (+2.8%). The world Soybean production, instead, is confirmed at the record level of 369.5 Mio Tons, +9.5% compared to the 2017-18 season.

In the U.S. is forecast a reduction in yields for Corn and in harvested area for Soybean, resulting in a lower production of the two crops compared to previous forecasts (Corn: -0.3%, Soybean: -0.1%). Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks.

An increase in exports for the 2018-19 season is projected for the 4 main exporters of Corn (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which will overall increase their exports by 14.7% compared to 2017-18 season. U.S exports are supported by a competitive price and reduced exports for Russia.

For the 2 main exporters of Soybean (Brazil and United States), lower exports are expected for 2018-19 season, y-o-y, however Argentina should offset the decrease by recovering from the previous season’s drought.

 

Corn and Soybean | Global producers by share

Corn and Soybean | Global producers by share

WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Corn Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - October 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-OCT18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - October 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Chinese Soybean import slows down, while production increases [Corn and Soybean - n ° 9/2018]

Posted on 20/09/2018

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The Global Corn and Soybean production is expected to increase in the season 2018-19, respectively of +0.7% (1.069 Mio T) and +0.6% (369.32 Mio T), compared to August estimates.

In the United States, the world’s largest producer of Corn and Soybean, yields are forecasted higher, resulting into an increment in crops: +1.6% for Corn and +2.3% for Soybean.

+8.3%Corn import in EU-28 (forecast 2018-19)

Corn production is higher in the EU-28, reflecting the increases for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and France. The EU-28 outlook, the largest global Corn importer (13% of total share), is for a higher domestic demand, and imports are raised by +8.3% compared to 2017-18 season.

WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

WORLD | Corn Top Importers – Yearly trend

In China, the fourth world producer of Soy, Soybean production is expected higher (+3.4%). Imports are reduced 1 Mio t to 94 Mio t as slower growth in protein meal demand and lower crush in 2017/18 continue into the next marketing year, reducing the expectations of record imports estimated in May 2018.

Global Corn Ending stocks are forecasted at 157.03 Mio T, with an increase if compared to the last outlook, but they are still below the level of the previous five seasons. Also Global Soybean stocks are raised, reaching a record level of 108.26 Mio t.

WORLD | Soybean Top Importers - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Importers – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - September 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-SEP-2018.pdf (3 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - September 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Corn and Soybean yields increase in the U.S. [Corn and Soybean - n°8/2018]

Posted on 16/08/2018

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Global Corn and Soybean production for the season 2018-19 is projected higher in comparison with July estimates, mainly on the higher production expected in the U.S., the world largest producer of Corn and currently also of Soybean. Global production is expected at 1061 Mio t of Corn, and 367 Mio t of Soybean, respectively +0.6% and +6.4% from the latest projections.

U.S. Corn supply is projected to rise faster than use


In the United States, expected growth is +2.5% for Corn and +2.1% for Soybean. Following the first survey-based Corn yield forecast, an increase is expected for many Corn Belt states: Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and North Dakota. Corn supply is projected to rise faster than use. Exports are raised reflecting expectations of reduced competition from Brazil. Brazil Corn production is lowered (-1.6%) based on updated estimates for second-crop Corn area.
For 2018-19, the following yields are expected in the U.S.:

  • Corn: 178.4 bushels per acre (11.33 tons per hectare)
  • Soybean: 51.6 bushels per acre (3.51 tons per hectare)

-2.8% EU Corn production (Forecast 2018-19)


EU Corn production is lowered (-2.8% from July outlook), mostly reflecting reductions for France and Germany that are partially offset by increases for Romania and Bulgaria. EU Corn imports are expected to reach record levels (18 Mio t).

WORLD | Map of Corn Yields

WORLD | Map of Corn Yields

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - August 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
edited_Mais-Soia_AUG18.pdf (6 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - August 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

China’s duties limit U.S. Soybean export [Corn and Soybean - n°07/2018]

Posted on 18/07/2018

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Global production for the season 2018-19 is projected higher both for Corn and Soybean, respectively at 1054.3 Mio t (+0.2% from June outlook) and 359.5 Mio t (+1.2%).

Corn production increased in the U.S. (361.5 Mio t, +1.4%), on higher planted and harvested areas, and EU-28 (61.5 Mio t, +0.8%). These increases more than offset the reduction expected for Canada and Russia, due to lower area and yield.
Soybean production is raised in the main producing countries: respectively +0.7% (117.3 Mio t) and +2.1% (120.5 Mio t) in the US and Brazil, both on higher harvested area, +1.8% in Argentina (57 Mio t) and +2.8% in China (14.5 Mio t).

-10.9%

U.S. Soybean Export (Forecast 2018-19)

Corn global trade outlook is for a reduction in export from Russia, more than offset by increased export for the United States (56.5 Mio t, +6%) based on the expectations of lower competition from Argentina and Brazil.
Soybean export is reduced for the U.S. (55.5 Mio t, -10.9%), reflecting the impact of China’s import duties. Despite losing market share in China, Soybean exports from the U.S. are supported in other markets, as lower prices increase demand and market share.
This decrease is partly offset by an increase for Brazil (75 Mio t, +2.9%), where planted area is expected to expand with higher prices resulting from increased trade with China.

+12.9%

Global Soybean Stocks (Forecast 2018-19)

Global Corn ending stocks are lowered from last month (152 Mio t, -1.8%), with the largest declines for China, EU-28, Mexico and the U.S., due to a higher domestic consumption.
On the contrary, Soybean stocks are forecasted higher at 98.3 Mio t (+12.9%), mainly reflecting the increase in the United States (15.8 Mio t, +50.6%).

The tariff that China imposed on U.S. Soybean is expected to cause higher prices for Soybeans in China and slower protein meal consumption growth. Lower demand and a year-over-year drawdown in stocks for China are forecast to result in reduced crush and a decline for imports to 95 Mio t.

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - July 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-JUL18.pdf (520 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - July 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

 

Lower estimates for U.S. Corn and Soybean ending stocks [Corn and Soybean - n°6/2018]

Posted on 18/06/2018

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Global Corn production for the season 2018-19 is projected at 1052.42 Mio Tons, -0.3% from May outlook, but it is unchanged in the largest producing Countries. Compared to the 2017-18 season, increases are expected for China (+4.2%), Brazil (+12.9%) and Argentina (+24.2%).

Global Soybean production is projected at 355.24 Mio Tons, slightly higher from last month, mainly on higher production for Brazil, that accounts for 33% of milk production (the same share as the U.S.). Brazil’s export is also expected to grow.

-19.7%

Global Corn ending stocks (Forecast 2018-19)

U.S. Corn outlook is for greater Corn used for ethanol production and lower beginning stocks, reflecting the exports during the month of April 2018, that bested the prior monthly shipment record set in November 1989.

Global Corn ending stocks for 2018-19 are estimated at 154.69 Mio Tons, -19.7% compared to the current season, with decreases for China and the US, which together hold 65% of world stocks.

World - Corn Ending Stocks

World – Corn Ending Stocks (Forecast 2018-19)

Also the global Soybean ending stocks are forecast lower (-5.9%) compared to the ongoing season, mainly reflecting the decrease expected in the U.S.  (-23.8%). However, ending stocks are higher if compared to the forecasts made in May (+ 0.4%), due to the growth of the ending stocks expected in Brazil.

In response to the tariffs President Trump placed on Chinese good, due to come into effect on July 6, China retaliated with a long list of 25% tariffs including corn, soybeans and several dairy products. TESEO will track the development of this situation, through specific focus and analysis, in the coming Corn & Soybean reports.

WORLD | Soybean - Main importers

WORLD | Soybean – Main importers (Forecast 2018-19)

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - June 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean.pdf (453 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - June 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Record Soybean import for China – New season outlook [Corn and Soybean - n°5/2018]

Posted on 16/05/2018

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The estimates for the new season 2018-19, starting in September for Corn and in October for Soybean, forecast increasing production and use and decreasing ending stocks from 2017-18.

Corn production is forecast at 1056.07 Mio Tons (+1.9% from a year ago) and Soybean production is expected to reach record high (354.54 Mio Tons, +5.3%).

Argentina+43.6% Soybean production expected in 2018-19

U.S. Corn and Soybean crops are projected down from last year with a lower forecast area and yield. This decrease will be more than offset by significant increases in other countries: China and Brazil, the second and the third largest Corn producers, are expected to increase the Corn production respectively +4.2% and +10.3%. Soybean production for Argentina, the third largest Corn producer and exporter, is projected +43.6% mostly due to recovery from drought.

Global Corn exports are projected higher (+4.6%) from the current season, with the largest increases for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. The U.S. will be affected by the competition from Ukraine and Russia and are expected to decrease the Corn exports (-5.6%). Notable forecast increases in Corn imports include Mexico, Vietnam and Egypt.

China65% share in world total Soybean import

Global Soybean exports are growing every year. The 2018-19 export forecast is +7% compared to 2017-18. The U.S. are expected to recover the lower export of the current year and to increase +10.9%. China, with a share of 65% of global Soybean import, is projected to increase again the imports, reaching a record 103 Mio Tons, more than doubling the volume compared to 10 years ago.

Source: USDA

CLAL.it - Soybean Top Importers

CLAL.it – Soybean Top Importers

Corn & Soybeans - May 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean.pdf (315 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - May 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Record high for Soybean production in Brazil [Corn and Soybean - n°4/2018]

Posted on 18/04/2018

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Global Production for the season 2017-18 is projected lower both for Corn (1036.1 Mio t, -0.5% from March outlook) and Soybean (334.8 Mio t, -1.8%).

115 Mio t of Soybean production in Brazil(outlook 2017-18)

Corn production is down in Argentina (33 Mio t, -8.3%), on reduction to both harvested area and yield, Paraguay and Brazil (92 Mio t, -2.6%), reflecting expectations of lower second-crop area. These decreases more than offset the increase for Mexico and South Africa.
Also Soybean production is lowered in Argentina (40 Mio t, -14.9%), again on reduced harvested area and yields, India and Uruguay, partly balanced by a higher production for Brazil (115 Mio t, +1.8%). Production in Brazil is forecast at a record level, on higher projected yields for Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraná, due to beneficial rainfall during the growing season.

Corn Export is expected lower for Brazil (33 Mio t, -5.7%) and Argentina (24 Mio t, -4%), with reduced export competition from these countries expected to impact the first half of 2018-19 marketing year in the United States. Corn imports are lowered for Iran, Malaysia, Taiwan, Mexico and Chile, with partially offsetting increases for Bangladesh and Turkey.
Soybean exports are reduced as higher exports for Brazil (70.5 Mio t, -3.5%), Russia, and Ukraine are balanced by lower exports for Argentina (4.2 Mio t, -38.2%) and Uruguay.

Global Corn ending stocks are lowered (197.8 Mio t, -0.7%), with the largest declines for Argentina (4 Mio t, -24.5%), Paraguay, and Brazil (10.9 Mio t, -4.4%) more than offsetting the increase for United States (55.4 Mio t, +2.6%), on lower food, seed and industrial use.
Also Soybean ending stocks are down (90.8 Mio t, -3.8%) with reductions mainly for Argentina (28.6 Mio t, -8.4%), Brazil (21.1Mio t, -2.8%) and the EU (1.1 Mio t, -11.7%).

Soybean Production share

Soybean Production share (outlook 2017-18)

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - April 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean.pdf (1 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - April 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Argentina: dryness affects yields for Corn and Soybean [Corn and Soybean - n°2/2018]

Posted on 16/02/2018

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Global production for the season 2017-18 is projected lower both for Corn and Soybean, respectively at 1041.7 Mio t (-0.3% from January outlook) and 346.9 Mio t (-0.5%).

Corn production decreased for Ukraine (24.1 Mio t, -3.5%), based on the latest official statistics, and Argentina (39 Mio t, -7.1%), where persistent heat and dryness during January and early February reduced yield prospects in key central growing areas.
In Argentina also Soybean production is lowered (54 Mio t, -3.6%) due to warmth and dryness, and other reductions are expected in Paraguay, Bolivia, India, Ukraine, and South Africa. Contrariwise, Soybean production in Brazil is projected higher (112 Mio t, +1.8%), as favorable weather throughout the growing season has raised yield prospects.

Corn Export is raised for Brazil (35 Mio t, +2.9%) and United States (52 Mio t, +6.5%), reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Argentina (27.5 Mio t, -5.2%) and Ukraine (20 Mio t, -2.4%).
Soybean export is expected lower for the U.S. (57.1 Mio t, -2.8%), reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil (69 Mio t, +3%).

Global Corn ending stocks are down from last month (203.1 Mio t, -1.7%), mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina (5.3 Mio t, -16%), Ukraine (0.89 Mio t, -11.9%) and U.S. (59.7 Mio t, -5%) that more than offset increases for Mexico, Brazil, and Turkey.
Global Soybean stocks decreased (98.1 Mio t, -0.4%) reflecting the lower expectations for Argentina (35 Mio t, -3.2%), Bolivia, Paraguay, and India more than offsetting an increase for the United States (14.4 Mio t, +12.7%).

World map of Corn Yields variations

World map of Corn Yields variations | Top 10 producers

World map of Soybean Yields variations

World map of Soybean Yields variations | Top 10 producers

Corn & Soybeans - February 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-FEB18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - February 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

 

U.S. Soybean export projected down on strong competition from South America [Corn and Soybean - n°12/2017]

Posted on 15/12/2017

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Global Corn production for the season 2017-18 is projected higher at 1044.7 Mio t (+0.1% from November outlook), while the global Soybean production is projected slightly lower at 348.5 Mio t (-0.1%).

Corn production is raised in China (215.9 Mio t, +0.4%), EU-28 (60.1 Mio t, +0.8%), Laos and Guatemala, more than offsetting a reduction for Russia. EU-28 Corn production is higher, mostly reflecting an increase for Romania that more than offsets declines for several countries.
Soybean production is steady in the main producing countries.

Corn exports are lowered for Russia, but raised for EU-28 (2 Mio t, +33.3%) which, according to the latest weekly trade data, is however recording low export volumes in the current season.

Soybean export is lowered for Canada and for the U.S. (60.6 Mio t, -1.1%) on stronger-than-expected competition from Argentina (8.5 Mio t, +6.2%) and Brazil (65.5 Mio t, +0.8%).

Global Corn ending stocks are raised, mainly reflecting increases for China (79.6 Mio t, +1.1%), EU-28 (6.8 Mio t, +5.7%) and Brazil (9.4 Mio t, +3.3%), that more than offset declines for Egypt (2 Mio t, -10%), Mexico (4.5 Mio t, -3.6%) and United States.
U.S. Corn ending stocks are down (61.9 Mio t, -2%), due to an increase in Corn used to produce ethanol following the higher Sorghum export to China that reduced the amount of Sorghum used to produce ethanol.

Global Soybean ending stocks are projected slightly higher at 98.3 Mio t (+0.4%). The increase for the U.S. (12.1 Mio t, +4.8%), due to the lower expectations for Soybean export, is more than offset by the decrease for Brazil (21.9 Mio t, -1.8%) and Argentina (37.2 Mio t, -1%).

Soybean Top Exporters - Yearly trend

Soybean Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - December 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-DIC-EN.pdf (601 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - December 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

Mexico’s Corn demand is growing [Corn and Soybean - n°11/2017]

Posted on 16/11/2017

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Global production for the season 2017-18 is projected higher both for Corn and Soybean, respectively at 1043.9 Mio t (+0.5% from October outlook) and 347.9 Mio t (+0.2%).

Corn production increased in the U.S. (370.3 Mio t, +2.1% from last month), on a record high yield (11.01 MT/HA), and EU-28, more than offsetting the decrease for Ukraine (25 Mio t, -7.4%), Russia and Vietnam. The projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are reduced based on reported harvest results to date.

Soybean production is expected slightly lower in the U.S. (120.44 Mio t, -0.1%), due to a fractionally lower yield, while in Brazil Soybean production is increased 1 Mio t to 108 Mio t (+0.9%) on higher reported area for Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.

Corn export is lowered for Ukraine (20.5 Mio t, -4.6%), but raised for the U.S. (48.9 Mio t, +4.1%), reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects. Import is raised for Mexico (16.5 Mio t,+6.5%) and Canada, but lowered for South Korea. If realized, Mexico would be the main Corn importer in the 2017-18 season.
Soybean export is expected higher for Brazil (65 Mio t, +1.6%)  and Paraguay (6 Mio t, +9.1%), while increased the Soybean Import for China (97 Mio t, +2.1%).

Global Corn ending stocks are raised (203.9 Mio t, +1.4%), mainly reflecting the increase for U.S. (63.2 Mio t, +6.3%), EU and Argentina, more than offsetting a decline expected for China (78.7 Mio t, -0.7%), Vietnam, Canada and Ukraine.
Also Soybean ending stocks are up from last month (97.9 Mio t, +1.9%), mostly reflecting increases for China (20.64 Mio t, +5.1%), Argentina and Brazil.

Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

Corn Top Importers – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - November 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-NOV-17-EN1.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - November 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

Lower Corn stocks in China, but higher in the U.S. [Corn and Soybean - n°10/2017]

Posted on 17/10/2017

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Global Corn production for the season 2017-18 is projected higher at 1038.8 Mio t (+0.6% from September outlook), while the global Soybean production is projected slightly down at 347.9 Mio t (-0.2%).

Corn production is raised in the U.S. (362.7 Mio t, +0.7% from last month), Nigeria, Turkey and Mozambico. This increase is partially offset by a reduction for Russia and Ukraine (27 Mio t, -1.81%), on reduced yields, and for other countries as Ethiopia and Tanzania.
In Russia and Ukraine it is expected a decrease also for Soybean production, not fully balanced by the increase projected for China (14.2 Mio t, +1.4%),  and Mexico (0.5 Mio t, +14.3%).

Corn export is projected higher for Mexico and Argentina (29 Mio t, +1.8%), the third global exporter, which recorded a constant growing trend since the 2013-14 season). Corn export is lowered, as the supply, in Russia and Ukraine (21.5 Mio t, -2.27%), for which is expected also a reduction in Soybean Export.

Global Corn ending stocks are reduced (201 Mio t, -0.7%) reflecting the decrease for Mexico and China (79.2 Mio t, -2.5%), mainly due to the higher food, seed and industrial use for Corn, partially offset by an increase for Argentina (6.07 Mio t, +32.8%), Turkey and USA (59.4 Mio t, +0.2%).

Also Soybean ending stocks are down (96 Mio t, -1.5%) with reductions for Brazil and U.S. (11.7 Mio t, -9.4%). If realized, ending stocks relative to use would be the highest since 2006-07 in the U.S..

CLAL.it - Corn and Soybean Ending stocks

CLAL.it – Corn and Soybean Ending stocks

Corn & Soybeans - October 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-EN-OTT-2017.pdf (538 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - October 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

Increasing EU demand for Corn [Corn and Soybean - n°9/2017]

Posted on 15/09/2017

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Global Corn production for 2017-18 (season started on September 1st) is expected to be 1032.63 Mio t, slightly down (-0.1%) compared to August estimates. Expected increases in the United States, Argentina and Mexico are offset by lower production in the European Union and Ukraine.

The U.S. crop is estimated at 360.30 Mio t (+0.2%). Corn used for ethanol is projected down 25 million bushels, based on observed usage during 2016-17 and expectations of lower exports. With supply increasing and use falling, Corn ending stocks are +2.7% from last month. Global Corn stocks are lower from the last 3 seasons, with a significant reduction in China (-19.8%), the country with the highest share of stocks.

Export is projected higher for Ukraine (+2.3%), the fourth largest Corn exporter, after the U.S., Brazil and Argentina. Ukraine’s relatively large exportable supplies and logistical advantages are expected to fill demand for imported Corn in the EU.

Ukraine is the largest Italy’s Corn supplier: 1060.7 t in the first half of 2017.

Global Soybean production for 2017-18 (new season will start on October 1st) is projected at 348.44 Mio t, +0.3% from August estimates, mainly reflecting a larger crop in the U.S. (120.59 Mio t). With increased supplies and lower prices, U.S. Soybean exports are raised +1.1% leaving ending stocks unchanged.

In China, world’s largest Soybean importer, imports are expected to increase further: +1.06% from last month’s estimates, +3.26% from the previous season.

EU-28 | cumulate weekly import of Maize

EU-28 | cumulate weekly import of Maize

Corn & Soybeans - September 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-EN-SET-2017.pdf (557 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - September 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.

Source: USDA

Corn Belt production slows [Corn and Soybean - n°8/2017]

Posted on 17/08/2017

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in the WASDE report of August 2017, shows for the season 2017-18 the estimates of a slightly decreasing global production for Corn (1033.5 Mio t, -0.3% from July outlook) and an increasing global production for Soybean (347.36 Mio t, +0.7%).

Corn production is reduced for the U.S. (359.5 Mio t, -0.7%), mainly on the lower estimates for many Corn Belt states (South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois). Corn production is expected down also for the EU-28 (60 Mio t, -2.6%) and Canada (13.9 Mio t, -3.5%), partially offset by an increase for Russia.
Soybean production is projected higher in the U.S. (119.2 Mio t, +2.8%), mainly on increased yields, while is expected lower in Canada, due to the dry weather in the Canadian Prairies and excessive rainfall in eastern regions.

Corn exports are lowered for the U.S. (46.99 Mio t, -1.3%), the EU (1.5 Mio t, -34.8%), Serbia and Canada (1.3 Mio t, -13%), more than offsetting an increase for Ukraine (21.5 Mio t, +4.9%) and Russia.
Lower U.S. Corn exports reflect the increased competitiveness of supplies in Brazil and Argentina, while U.S. Soybean exports are projected up 1.5 Mio t, partly balanced by lower Argentina shipments.

Global ending stocks are almost unchanged for Corn, while are projected higher for Soybean (97.78 Mio t, +4.5%), based on increased ending stocks in the U.S. (12.9 Mio t, +3.3%), Argentina (36.7 Mio t, +10.9%) and Brazil (24.02 Mio t, +3%), the three largest Soybean exporters (88% of global export).

We are constantly improving the “Corn and Soybean” report to reach consumer interests. Would you like to find any other information? Write to newsteam@clal.it!

Corn and Soybean main exporters – share on total export (forecast 2017-18)

Corn and Soybean main exporters – share on total export (forecast 2017-18)

Corn & Soybeans - August 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.
MAIS-SOIA-AGO-17-EN.pdf (580 kB)
Corn & Soybeans - August 2017: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2017-18 season.