Corn and Soybean: world market trends

TESEO offers a monthly report on the key markets of Corn and Soybean, the two feed ingredients that have the greatest impact on the cost of animal feed. Keep yourself informed on a monthly basis with the summary or with the full PDF report containing the projections on production, consumption, trade and stock levels processed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA-FAS) and combined with international prices (CME Group in Chicago), plus a focus on Italy. The elaborations by the TESEO team simplify data reading and allow immediate analysis.

China: Soy consumption at record levels in 2020/21 season

Posted on 21/05/2020

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Global Production

Soybean Global production for the season 2019/20 is projected at 336.11 Mio Tons (-6.7% on 2018/19), slightly decreasing compared to the previous estimates.

Brazil Soybean production is estimated at 124 Mio Tons for the season 2019/20 (+4.2% on 2018/19).

The increase in production is driven by the increase in the harvested area, +3% compared the last season, and a higher yield per hectare (+3%). The only exception is the Rio Grande do Sul State, where a decrease in production is expected due to drought.

Soybean production for the United States and Argentina is expected to decrease compared both to the previous season, respectively to 96.78 Mio Tons (-19.7%), and 51 Mio Tons (-7.8%), and to April estimates. In Argentina, unfavourable weather conditions have reduced yields by -10%.

TESEO.it - Soybean Top Producers

TESEO.it – Soybean Top Producers

Global soybean production in 2020/21 is forecast to surge to 362.8 million tons, up 8 percent from the 2019/20 estimate. For United States and Brazil, the main producing Countries, it is expected an increase in harvested area and yields. Production is estimated at 131 Mio Tons for Brazil, and at 121 Mio Tons for the US.

TESEO.it - Map of Soybean Yields

TESEO.it – Map of Soybean Yields

Consumption, Export and Prices

Soybean consumption for the 2019/20 season is stable at 348 Mio Tons, while for the 2020/21 it is expected at a record level.

The world export of Soybean 2019/20 is expected to increase (+3.8% on 2018-19), reaching the level of 153.98 Mio Tons.

Brazil’s exports are estimated at 84 Mio Tons, (+12.6% on 2018-19), reflecting the increased trade during March and April, supported by a greater competitiveness in the markets due to the weaker currency.

On the contrary, US exports, which are suffering from the competition with Brazil, are estimated at 45.59 Mio Tons, (-4.2% on 2018/19).

Brazil’s average export prices for March 2020 are down to $345 per ton, while the US prices are slightly higher at $366 per ton.

TESEO.it - Average Soybean Export Prices

TESEO.it – Average Soybean Export Prices

In 2020/21, China is expected to account for over half of global consumption growth, mainly due to the expansion of the Chinese swine herd, which is recovering from African swine fever.

Corn: the demand for Ethanol falls down

Posted on 21/04/2020

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Global Corn Production

Corn production for the season 2019-20 is estimated at 1113.02 Mio Tons, adjusted higher compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 0.9% compared to the previous season.

Global Corn production is forecasted up with larger crops in the European Union and Belarus more than offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Laos.

The US Corn production forecast is unchanged compared to the last estimates (-4.5% compared 2018/2019 season). Some operators believe that Coronavirus should not  delay farmers from planting. The USDA has estimated Corn acreage in the US for 2020-21 (September-August) at 96.99 million acres, 4% higher on year, and the highest after 2012-13. The U.S. season-average farm price decreased to $3.60 per bushel, down $0,20 compared to last season.

Corn production forecast is expected unchanged for China, Brazil and Argentina compared to the previous outlook.

Following the above-average rains in March, CONAB estimates good harvests in Mato Grosso area in Brazil, which represents approximately 46 percent of Brazil’s second-season crop. In the areas located south of Mato Grosso, March rains were below-average.

CLAL.it - Map Corn Yields

CLAL.it – Map Corn Yields

Global Corn Export: slight increase compared to the last outlook

Corn export for the season 2019-20 is projected slightly higher compared to last estimates, but it is still lower compared to the 2018-19 season.

April’s export forecast shows an increase for UE and Argentina, while a decrease for Russia.

Corn export outlook for US and Brazil is unchanged compared to the last forecast, confirming a negative trend (US -16.5% e Brazil -9.4% vs season 2018-19).

CLAL.it - Corn Export

CLAL.it – Corn Export

ETHANOL: Fall in demand

Following the collapse in the demand for gasoline, a domino effect has been seen on the demand for ethanol, which led to a reduction in production and the closure of several plants. According to Geoff Cooper, President and CEO of the RFA (Renewable Fuels Association), the ethanol industry could lose $ 10 Billion due to COVID-19 related issues. Some operators expect a 3 billion gallon decrease in ethanol production for 2020, with a drop of about 20% compared to 2019.

CLAL.it - Production of Ethanol in U.S.

CLAL.it – Production of Ethanol in U.S.

Futures are reflecting the negative trend of the market. CME Futures of July 20, which were $3.79 on February 25, have reached the level of $3.22 on April 20.

 

Soybean production expected +7.7% in Brazil, world’s main producer

Posted on 26/03/2020

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Soybean production increase in South America

Soybean global production for the season 2019/20 is forecast at 341,76 Mio Tons, -4.7% compared to 2018/19 season, but increasing compared to the previous estimates. This increase reflects the higher projected production in Brazil and Argentina.

Further increase in production expected for Brazil and Argentina in the season 2019/2020

For both South American Countries is expected a further increase in production of 1 Mio Ton compared to February prediction, reaching respectively 126 Mio Tons in Brazil and 54 Mio Tons in Argentina.

Brazil confirms itself as the world’s main Soybean producer in the 2019/2020 season, with an expected increment of 7.7% compared to the previous season. The increase of production in Argentina is mainly due to overall favourable conditions in higher-yielding central and north-western farming areas. Forecast for Soybean production in the US is unchanged at 96.84 Mio Tons (-19.6% compared to the previous season).

Considering a higher Soybean production in South America and an expected steady trend for consumption, it is expected a smaller decrease in stocks compared to the previous estimates.

Soybean export is positive, China main destination

Global Soybean export is expected to increase, +2.4% compared to the last season, driven by the higher exports for the main exporting Countries: US (+4.4%) and Brazil (+3.2%). This increase largely offset the projected decrease in export for Argentina (-9.9%).

China, which has accounted for the 57% of world Soybean import in the season 2018/2019, imported 88 Mio Tons in 2019, of which 57.7 Mio Tons from Brazil (65% of the total) and 17 Mio Tons from US (19% of the total). China’s average import price in December 2019 was 408 $/Ton.

TESEO - Soybean Production and Export

TESEO – Soybean Production and Export

Corn: market rally in the coming months?

Posted on 26/02/2020

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Market Trends and Forecasts
World Corn production expected to decrease by 1%.

World corn production for the season 2019/20 is estimated at 1111.59 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 1% compared to the previous season.

CLAL.it - Corn Production

CLAL.it – Corn Production

The US lower Corn production forecast (-4.5%) could limits the surplus available to the export, which is expected in significant decrease. Considering that US Mais production accounts for 31.3% of the total production, this trend could have an impact over global prices.

According to USDA data, Chinese Corn production for the season 2019/20 is projected higher by 1.3% compared to last season, reaching 260.77 Mio Tons, but still not enough to completely meet domestic demand.

In Brazil, Corn collection has been already completed for about 50% of total harvested areas. Local farmers are waiting for adequate rains, which could prevent crop loss.

Favorable climate conditions in Argentina are supporting Corn production, estimated at 50 Mio Tons for the current season, slightly decreasing compared to the excellent 2018/19 season.

Production in Ukraine, the fourth world Corn exporter, is expected to be at the same high levels of the previous season. Ukraine accounts only for the 3% of the global Corn production but it has a significant share on the global Corn export (19%).

Global Corn stocks, according to USDA data, are lowered for the third consecutive year.

CLAL.it - Corn Production and Export

CLAL.it – Corn Production and Export

Export in decline for the main global Players

World Corn export for the season 2019/20 is expected lower compared to the last season. The main exporting countries are reducing their estimates: -16.5% for the US, -14.3% for Argentina and -6.9% for Brazil.

The delay of the brazilian second crop could affect the export of the United States. The exported volumes from the US could overcome the current estimates if the brazilian supply will not be enough to satisfy the demand from trade partners, or if the trade deal US-China will lead to higher chinese purchases.
Projections for trade flows with China are still uncertain following the current issues related to the Coronavirus outbreaks.

CLAL.it - Corn Export

CLAL.it – Corn Export

Market uncertainty, Futures quotes slowing down

The ongoing spread of the Coronavirus through China are generating uncertainty in the financial and commodity markets. This uncertainty is also reflected in the futures’ market, which have maintained a range between $3.95 and $4.05 from mid-December until the first outbreaks of the Coronavirus in late January.  Since the emergence of the disease has begun, old crop futures continue to grind lower with July futures closing on February 25 at $3.79.

Corn July 2020 Futures - CME Group

Corn July 2020 Futures – CME Group

Futures highlight closed contracts with lower prices compared to the previous weeks. Considering the lower Corn production expected for the season 2019/20, it could be possible to see a market Rally on Corn quotes in the next few months

Soybean: Prices on the rise in the new season

Posted on 20/01/2020

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019/2020 season, is forecast at 337.70 Mio Tons, -5.7% compared to the 2018/2019 season, but it is still slightly above the level of the previous forecast.

Soybean total use is continuously growing, and given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 96.67 Mio Tons (-12,34%).

Soybean production in Brazil, expected to be the world’s main producer in the 2019/2020 season, should reach 123 Mio Tons (+5.1% compared to 2018/2019 season). United States’ production is decreasing (19.6%) due to the diminishing of U.S yield of land, especially in North Dakota and South Dakota.

Soybean Production

Global Export

Global export of Soybean for 219/2020 season is expected almost unchanged compared to the previous season. Higher predicted exports from Brazil and U.S. (overall +1,5%) compensate for the expected decrease from Argentina.

Brazil average export price in October is 0.37$ per Kg, while U.S. average export price is 0.36$ per Kg, both prices are increasing compared to last month.

Soybean exporters

Global Import

For the new season, China, the main world Soybean importer, should import more volumes: 85 Mio Tons, +3% compared to 2018/2019 season. China’s average import price in November is 0.40$ per Kg.

Soybean Import

Italian Import

In the first 10 months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports: +29% compared to January-October 2018. Italy has recorded an overall variation of +84.2% of the imported volumes from U.S. and Brazil, which remain the main suppliers.

Soybean Italian Import

Soybean Prices

 

 

World Corn production expected to decrease

Posted on 19/12/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts
World Production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which began on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1108.62 Mio Tons, +0.6% from November outlook. 

Production is expected to decrease by 1.4% compared to the previous season.

Corn World ProductionThe two main world producers of Corn have opposite trends: a lower production is expected for United States (-5.3%), partially offset by higher expectations for China (+1.3%), reflecting increases to both cultivated area and yield. Corn production forecast is unchanged for Brazil and slightly higher for the EU-28 (+0.5%).

U.S. ethanol production is expected to be higher for the months of November and December.

ethanol productionGlobal Export

World Corn exports for the 2019-20 season are expected at 166.51 Mio Tons, -7.6% compared to the 2018-19 season, lower from the record level anticipated in the recent forecasts.
A decrease in exports is estimated for the 4 main players (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), with an overall reduction of 8.3%.

corn exportGlobal Import

The European Union, the main Corn importer, should reduce its purchases (-16.7%).
The growing trend of imports continues for Mexico (+4.8%) and Vietnam (+12.7%), which now ranks 4th among the global.
World Corn imports are expected higher (+2.9%) for the 2019-20 season.

Corn importItalian Import

Italy for the period January-September 2019 increased its imports of Corn by 11.4%. Italian imports from Hungary, Slovenia, Romania and Croatia, are growing sharply, with an overall variation of +43.8%; Ukraina, instead, has reduced its exports towards Italy.

Italy Corn importCorn Prices

Soybean consumption worldwide continues to grow

Posted on 22/11/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019/20 season, which began on October 1st, is forecast at 336.56 Mio Tons, -6% compared to the 2018/19 season.

Soybean total use is constantly growing, and given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 95.42 Mio Tons (-13%).

Production-consumption-stock-soy

Soybean production of Brazil, world’s main producer expected for 2019/20 season, should reach 123 Mio Tons (+5.1% compared to 2018/19 season). United States’ production is decreasing (19.8%). The U.S yield of land is diminishing. There is also a lower yield in Canada and India.

Yearly-Soybean-Production

Global Export

Global export of Soybean for 2019/20 season is expected practically unchanged compared to the previous season. Higher projected exports from Brazil and U.S. offset for the expected decrease from Argentina. First weekly data show a slight increase of U.S. export of Soybean in the new season.

Soybean-main-exporters

Global Import

For the new season, China, the main world Soybean importer, should import more volumes: +3% compared to 2018/19 season.

Soybean-main-importers

Italian Import

In the first 8 months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports: +27.7% compared to January-August 2018. U.S. and Brazil are the main suppliers more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

Italy-Imports-Soybean

Soybean-prices

United States: Corn used for ethanol is lowered

Posted on 17/10/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which began on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1104.01 Mio Tons, lower from the record level anticipated in the recent forecasts.

corn-production

Production is expected to decrease by 1.7% compared to the previous season, reflecting lower production in the United States (due to a decline in harvested area) and China, the main world producers. Corn production is forecast unchanged for Brazil and slightly higher for the EU-28 (+0.9%).

U.S. Corn used for ethanol is lower based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration.

ethanol

Global export

World Corn exports for the 2019-20 season are expected at 169.9 Mio Tons (-6.3% compared to the 2018-19 season). A decrease in exports is estimated for the 4 main players (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which account for 87% of the market share.

corn-export

Global import

The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce its purchases (-15.3%).
The growing trend of Mexican imports continues (+ 4.8%).

corn-import

Italian import

Data for the first seven months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +9.5% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Hungary (+13.9%) and Slovenia (+273.4%), which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine (-13.6%).

italy-corn-import

corn-price

U.S. Soybean exports recover

Posted on 18/09/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019-20 season, beginning on October 1, is forecast at 341.39 Mio Tons, -5.4% compared to the 2018-19 season.

Soybean total use record a continuous increase and, given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 99.19 Mio Tons (-11.8%).

soy-production

In the 2018-19 season the United States were the first World Soybean Producer with a production of 123.7 Mio Tons, but for the 2019-20 season a production of 98.9 Mio Tons is expected (-20.1%), on a lower yield forecast at 47.9 bushels per acre.

Brazil will surpass the United States as the largest producer of Soybeans in 2019-20, taking over the top ranking, with a share of 36% and a production of 123 Mio Tons (+ 5.1%), which also reflects the yield increase.

soy-yields

Global export

For 2018-19 Soybean exports for Brazil are lowered based on lower-than-expected shipments during the past few months. However, higher-than-expected exports by Argentina and the United States, particularly to China, are offsetting.

The weekly data show that, after a significant decrease in the first half of the season, US exports have started to recover since April, and in August they exceeded the levels of 2018. In the period January-July 2019 the United States, after the slowdown in 2018, increased Soybean export to China by + 33%.

For 2019-20, Soybean exports are expected higher for the three main exporters (Brazil, USA, Argentina).

soy-export

Global import

China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.

soy-import

Italian import

In the first half of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +23.3%, compared to January-June 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

soy-italysoy-price

Corn: U.S. exports reflect competitiveness from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine

Posted on 23/08/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1108.24 Mio Tons, deviating from the record level anticipated in May. Production is expected to decrease by 1.3% compared to the previous season, reflecting lower production in the United States and China, the main world producers.

corn-production

Ukraine production is projected record high at 36.5 Mio Tons, reflecting increases to both area and yield.

Also EU Corn production is raised, as Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria are producing more Corn than expected.

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +18.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. An overall decrease of 3.6% is expected for the new season. Only Ukraine should further increase exports.

corn-export

Monthly updates for the first half of 2019 indicate exports of 26.4 Mio Tons for the United States, -28.5% compared to January-June 2018. For 2019-20 U.S. exports are lowered (-2.4%) reflecting export competitiveness and expectations of increasing competition from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.

us-weekly

Global import

The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-10.6%). The growing trend of Mexican imports continues (+ 8.8%).

corn-import

Italian import

Data for the first five months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.4% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania.

italian-corn-import

corn-price

Record soybean production forecast for Brazil in the new season

Posted on 18/07/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

World Soybean production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on October 1, 2019, is estimated at 347.04 Mio Tons, -4.4% from the previous season.

Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as top Soybean producer, with a share of 35% due to a significant production increase (+5.1% compared to the current season). Projections for the United States are for lower planted and harvested area, and Soybean production in estimated at -15.4%. Soybean supply is slowing also for Argentina (-5.4%).

Soybean production

Global export

Global Soybean export, down 1.9% in the current season, is expected to recover in the new season (+0.7%), due to higher exports for the United States.

Looking at the 2018-19 export data, in the first 5 months of 2019 the U.S. recorded -2.7%, with lower volumes sold to China and Japan, in comparison with last year.

U.S. Soybean export

Global import

China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.

Soybean top importers

For the EU-28, imports are forecast to slow down (-4.4%). EU data for the first 5 months of 2019 show a +3.6% increase in Soybean imports.

Italian import

In the first four months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +16.8%, compared to January-April 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

Italian Soybean importsSoybeans price

Corn production: record forecasts for the new season

Posted on 23/05/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at the record level of 1133.78 Mio Tons, +1.3% compared to the current 2018-19 season. With a decrease in initial stocks and an increase in total use, final stocks are estimated at 314.71 Mio Tons (-3.4% y-o-y).

 WORLD | Corn Production, Utilization and Stocks

Corn production forecasts in the main countries estimate higher crops in the United States, Brazil and the EU-28, the first, third and fourth Country Producers respectively. Corn production in China, on the other hand, is expected to slow (1.3%).

 WORLD | Corn - Main producers

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +14.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Stability is expected for the new season (+ 0.8%).
Increased exports out of Argentina and Brazil during 2018-19 are expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of 2019-20.WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

Global import

Exports are mainly oriented to Mexico, South Korea, Vietnam and Iran. The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-14.9%).WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

Italian import

Data for the first two months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.6% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania. ITALY | Corn Import - Main suppliersCorn prices

EU Soybean import continues to be high

Posted on 26/04/2019

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Global Soybean production for 2018-19 is estimated at a record level of 360.6 Mio Tons. The slight increase compared to previous estimates, reflects favorable weather in Brazil, the world’s Soybean biggest exporter, in particular in the Rio Grande do Sul, where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Soybean production in Brazil for the 2018-19 season is expected at 117 Mio Tons. The production is lower (-4.1%) compared to the previous season.

U.S. Soybean export
to China-35% Jan-Feb 2019 y-o-y

Brazil’s exports are expected at 79.5 Mio Tons (+4.4% from the previous season) and only partially offset the lower exports expected for the United States (-11.9%). The data for the first two months of 2019 relating to US exports show a decrease compared to January-February 2018, with China (the main buyer) which reduced its purchases by 35%.

For the European Union, the second world Soybean importer after China, imports are expected to increase by 8.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. In the months of January and February 2019 there is a growth of 1.4% with a significant reduction in imports from Brazil and Canada, more than offset by imports from the United States (+ 147.7% compared to January-February 2018). Spain and Italy are the EU countries that have mainly increased imports from the US, respectively: + 63.9% and + 73.7%.

TESEO.clal.it - China is the world's largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it – China is the world’s largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it - In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO.clal.it – In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019
TESEO-Soybean-export-April-2019.pdf (3 MB)
TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019

Source: USDA, ISTAT, IHS

 

Ukraine boosts Corn exports

Posted on 17/04/2019

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Global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at 1107.4 Mio Tons, higher than the previous forecasts and +2.9% from last season. Brazil  Corn  production is raised,  reflecting improved yield prospects for  second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger area.

For the United States, the largest Corn producer in the world, production is expected at 366.3 Mio Tons (-1.3% compared to the previous season) and Corn used  to  produce  ethanol  is  lowered.

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

In 2018 the United States increased exports to all the main purchasing countries: Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan. Forecasts for the season (September 2018 – August 2019) show a weakening of US exports, reflecting competition from Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine.

The EU-28 is the main Corn importer and is increasingly dependent on imports from extra-EU countries. In 2018 the EU imported 21.7 Mio Tons of Corn, and exported 2.2 Mio Tons. The trade balance therefore shows -19.5 Mio Tons in 2018, while in 2017 it was -14.6 Mio Tons.

EU Corn imports grew by +32.4% in 2018 compared to 2017. 52% of the Corn comes from Ukraine, which exported to the EU 11.4 Mio Tons (+32.8%). Brazil, with a 22% share, is the second supplier (4.8 Mio Tons, +12.5%). European imports from the United States and Canada, third and fourth suppliers, have doubled compared to 2017.

TESEO.clal.it – Largest Corn exporters

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn Exporters

TESEO.clal.it - EU Corn Imports

TESEO.clal.it – EU Corn Imports

Corn Report - April 2019
Corn-Report-April-2019.pdf (1 MB)
Corn Report - April 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

EU Soybean import from the US: the boom continues

Posted on 25/03/2019

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Global Soybean production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at the record level of 360.1 Mio Tons, although slightly down (-0.3%) compared to last month forecast, reflecting a lower production decline expected in Brazil (-0.5 Mio Tons), given the dry weather conditions and the lower yields in the States of Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias.

U.S. Soybean production is expected at 123.7 Mio Tons. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is raised on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year.

TESEO.clal.it - Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

TESEO.clal.it – Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

European Union and China are the top destinations of US Soybean. With the entry into force of Chinese duties in July 2018, US exports to China dropped and recorded 8.3 Mio Tons in 2018 (-69% from 2017).

EU Soy import
from the U.S.1,25Mio TonsJan 2019 y-o-y

The agreement between Juncker and Trump in July 2018 supported US Soybean export to the European Union: +61% in 2018 compared to 2017, equal to 7.7 Mio Tons (51% of EU total Soybean import). The Netherlands and Spain are the main European buyers. Italy also significantly increased Soybean purchases from the US, for a total of 663,100 tons. Brazil is the second EU Soybean supplier, which imported 5.4 Mio Tons in 2018 (+7% compared to 2017).

The first data for 2019, relating to January, confirm the boom in European soybean imports from the US: 1.25 Mio Tons, +184% compared to January 2018, at an average CIF price of € 321.30 / ton.

TESEO.clal.it - US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it – US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it - EU Soybean import

TESEO.clal.it – EU Soybean import

Soybean Report - March 2019
TESEO-SOY-Report-March-2019.pdf (3 MB)
Soybean Report - March 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

Argentina: higher Corn supplies boost the export [Corn and Soybean - n°1/2019]

Posted on 22/02/2019

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Global Corn production for 2018-19 is estimated at 1099.61 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the December outlook. The expected decrease in the United States (-1.4%) is offset by higher yields in China (+0.5%), EU-28 (+0.5%) and Argentina (+8.2%), with abundant rainfall over the past two months boosting yield prospects.

Global Soybean production is expected at 360.99 Mio Tons, -2.2% compared to previous forecast, reflecting crop reductions in the three main Soybean producers: U.S. (-1.2%), Brazil (-4.1%) and Argentina (-0.9%), due to a reduction in harvested area that is partly offset by increased yields.

US crop yields are projected lower, and Corn and Soybean production is expected to decline more than consumption, so final stocks are forecast at -2.6% for Corn and -4.7% for Soy. There is a reduction in the Corn used for ethanol.

Argentina+38%Corn export (outlook 2018-19 from previous season)

On the Corn export side, record levels for Argentina (29 Mio Tons, +38%) and for Ukraine (28.5 Mio Tons, +58%) are expected for the 2018-19 season. Global exports are expected to increase by +14.4% compared to the previous season. Soybean exports are forecast slightly higher (+0.9%), with greater exports from Brazil and Argentina, which offset the decline for the United States (-11.9% compared to the 2017-18 season).

Forecasts of global Soybean ending stocks have been revised downwards, reflecting the historical balance sheets revisions for Argentina and Brazil, however the level remains high (106.72 Mio Tons).

Source: USDA

TESEO.clal.it - Global Corn exports are expected to increase +14.4% in 2018-19

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn exports are expected to increase +14.4% in 2018-19

Corn & Soybeans - February 2019: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soy_.pdf (4 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - February 2019: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Weather supports Soybean Supply from Brazil [Corn and Soybean - n°12/2018]

Posted on 21/12/2018

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Global Corn production for 2018-19 is forecast at 1,099.9 Mio Tons, +0.1% from November projections, with increases for Ukraine (record production forecast at 35 Mio Tons), and for the European Union, especially for Romania.

U.S. most recent data on ethanol production show a decrease, therefore lower Corn used for ethanol is expected. With no production and export changes, ending stocks are projected at 45.2 Mio Tons, higher from last month.

Global 2018-19 Soybean production is forecast at 369.2 Mio Tons, +0.5% from November forecast. The increase is mainly due to greater Soybean production for Brazil, the second largest Soybean Producer: +1.2% from previous outlook, +1.4% from previous season, reflecting favorable weather conditions in the Center-West region.

Brazil+6.3%Soybean export (outlook 2018-19 from previous season)

Large competitive supplies in Brazil are expected to boost the export: +5.2% compared to previous estimates,  +6.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. As a result, exports from Argentina, Canada and Paraguay decreased and their stocks increased.

U.S. Soybean ending stock are projected at a record 26 Mio Tons, with production and export unchanged.

Source: USDA

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - December 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-DEC1.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - December 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

China revised Corn data: tripled stocks [Corn and Soybean - n°11/2018]

Posted on 16/11/2018

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68%of Corn stocks are held by China   (forecast 2018-19)

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (N.B.S.) in October revised its supply estimates for Corn in China from 2007-08 through 2017-18. For the 2018-19 season, beginning stocks are forecast at 223 Mio Tons (+180% from October estimates), and ending stocks are expected at 207 Mio Tons (+180%). China’s stocks are forecast to account for 68% of global Corn stocks (followed by the U.S. with a share of 14%).

Global Corn stocks reflect this revision and are estimated at 308 Mio Tons, +93% compared to last month’s estimates. US stocks, on the other hand, are expected to decrease (-4.2%).

Excluding China, world production is almost unchanged, in fact higher production in Argentina, Kenya, Russia and Moldova offset the expected decreases in the EU (in particular in Hungary, Poland and Germany) and in the USA (-1%, on a reduced yield forecast).

The 2018-19 global Soybean production is reduced -2% from October estimates. Lower production for the United States and Argentina is partly offset by increases for China, India and Ukraine.

U.S. Soybean production is forecast -1.9% on lower yield, which is projected at 52.1 bushels per acre, -1 bushel.

South America is expected to capture more of

China’s Soybean market

U.S. Soybean exports are affected by lower imports projected for China, due to the customs tariffs imposed by China, and are expected at -7.8%. In fact, China is forecast to import less Soybean (-4.4%). South America is expected to capture more of China’s Soybean market while the U.S. is likely to capture more share in other markets.

U.S. Corn exports are reduced -1% based on expectations of increased competition from Ukraine.

World - Corn Ending stocks | Total and % share

World – Corn Ending stocks | Total and % share

Source: USDA

 

Corn & Soybeans - November 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-NOV18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - November 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

 

U.S. Corn and Soy production slips [Corn and Soybean - n°10/2018]

Posted on 19/10/2018

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Starting from the report of November 2018, the data show a significative variation, following the large revision for Corn data in China, made by Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.

The global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is expected to decrease slightly (1068.3 Mio Tons, -0.1%) compared to the estimates made in September, but remains higher than the previous season (+2.8%). The world Soybean production, instead, is confirmed at the record level of 369.5 Mio Tons, +9.5% compared to the 2017-18 season.

In the U.S. is forecast a reduction in yields for Corn and in harvested area for Soybean, resulting in a lower production of the two crops compared to previous forecasts (Corn: -0.3%, Soybean: -0.1%). Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks.

An increase in exports for the 2018-19 season is projected for the 4 main exporters of Corn (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which will overall increase their exports by 14.7% compared to 2017-18 season. U.S exports are supported by a competitive price and reduced exports for Russia.

For the 2 main exporters of Soybean (Brazil and United States), lower exports are expected for 2018-19 season, y-o-y, however Argentina should offset the decrease by recovering from the previous season’s drought.

 

Corn and Soybean | Global producers by share

Corn and Soybean | Global producers by share

WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Corn Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - October 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-OCT18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - October 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Chinese Soybean import slows down, while production increases [Corn and Soybean - n ° 9/2018]

Posted on 20/09/2018

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The Global Corn and Soybean production is expected to increase in the season 2018-19, respectively of +0.7% (1.069 Mio T) and +0.6% (369.32 Mio T), compared to August estimates.

In the United States, the world’s largest producer of Corn and Soybean, yields are forecasted higher, resulting into an increment in crops: +1.6% for Corn and +2.3% for Soybean.

+8.3%Corn import in EU-28 (forecast 2018-19)

Corn production is higher in the EU-28, reflecting the increases for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and France. The EU-28 outlook, the largest global Corn importer (13% of total share), is for a higher domestic demand, and imports are raised by +8.3% compared to 2017-18 season.

WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

WORLD | Corn Top Importers – Yearly trend

In China, the fourth world producer of Soy, Soybean production is expected higher (+3.4%). Imports are reduced 1 Mio t to 94 Mio t as slower growth in protein meal demand and lower crush in 2017/18 continue into the next marketing year, reducing the expectations of record imports estimated in May 2018.

Global Corn Ending stocks are forecasted at 157.03 Mio T, with an increase if compared to the last outlook, but they are still below the level of the previous five seasons. Also Global Soybean stocks are raised, reaching a record level of 108.26 Mio t.

WORLD | Soybean Top Importers - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Importers – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - September 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-SEP-2018.pdf (3 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - September 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

China: Soy consumption at record levels in 2020/21 season

Posted on 21/05/2020

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Global Production

Soybean Global production for the season 2019/20 is projected at 336.11 Mio Tons (-6.7% on 2018/19), slightly decreasing compared to the previous estimates.

Brazil Soybean production is estimated at 124 Mio Tons for the season 2019/20 (+4.2% on 2018/19).

The increase in production is driven by the increase in the harvested area, +3% compared the last season, and a higher yield per hectare (+3%). The only exception is the Rio Grande do Sul State, where a decrease in production is expected due to drought.

Soybean production for the United States and Argentina is expected to decrease compared both to the previous season, respectively to 96.78 Mio Tons (-19.7%), and 51 Mio Tons (-7.8%), and to April estimates. In Argentina, unfavourable weather conditions have reduced yields by -10%.

TESEO.it - Soybean Top Producers

TESEO.it – Soybean Top Producers

Global soybean production in 2020/21 is forecast to surge to 362.8 million tons, up 8 percent from the 2019/20 estimate. For United States and Brazil, the main producing Countries, it is expected an increase in harvested area and yields. Production is estimated at 131 Mio Tons for Brazil, and at 121 Mio Tons for the US.

TESEO.it - Map of Soybean Yields

TESEO.it – Map of Soybean Yields

Consumption, Export and Prices

Soybean consumption for the 2019/20 season is stable at 348 Mio Tons, while for the 2020/21 it is expected at a record level.

The world export of Soybean 2019/20 is expected to increase (+3.8% on 2018-19), reaching the level of 153.98 Mio Tons.

Brazil’s exports are estimated at 84 Mio Tons, (+12.6% on 2018-19), reflecting the increased trade during March and April, supported by a greater competitiveness in the markets due to the weaker currency.

On the contrary, US exports, which are suffering from the competition with Brazil, are estimated at 45.59 Mio Tons, (-4.2% on 2018/19).

Brazil’s average export prices for March 2020 are down to $345 per ton, while the US prices are slightly higher at $366 per ton.

TESEO.it - Average Soybean Export Prices

TESEO.it – Average Soybean Export Prices

In 2020/21, China is expected to account for over half of global consumption growth, mainly due to the expansion of the Chinese swine herd, which is recovering from African swine fever.

Corn: the demand for Ethanol falls down

Posted on 21/04/2020

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Global Corn Production

Corn production for the season 2019-20 is estimated at 1113.02 Mio Tons, adjusted higher compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 0.9% compared to the previous season.

Global Corn production is forecasted up with larger crops in the European Union and Belarus more than offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Laos.

The US Corn production forecast is unchanged compared to the last estimates (-4.5% compared 2018/2019 season). Some operators believe that Coronavirus should not  delay farmers from planting. The USDA has estimated Corn acreage in the US for 2020-21 (September-August) at 96.99 million acres, 4% higher on year, and the highest after 2012-13. The U.S. season-average farm price decreased to $3.60 per bushel, down $0,20 compared to last season.

Corn production forecast is expected unchanged for China, Brazil and Argentina compared to the previous outlook.

Following the above-average rains in March, CONAB estimates good harvests in Mato Grosso area in Brazil, which represents approximately 46 percent of Brazil’s second-season crop. In the areas located south of Mato Grosso, March rains were below-average.

CLAL.it - Map Corn Yields

CLAL.it – Map Corn Yields

Global Corn Export: slight increase compared to the last outlook

Corn export for the season 2019-20 is projected slightly higher compared to last estimates, but it is still lower compared to the 2018-19 season.

April’s export forecast shows an increase for UE and Argentina, while a decrease for Russia.

Corn export outlook for US and Brazil is unchanged compared to the last forecast, confirming a negative trend (US -16.5% e Brazil -9.4% vs season 2018-19).

CLAL.it - Corn Export

CLAL.it – Corn Export

ETHANOL: Fall in demand

Following the collapse in the demand for gasoline, a domino effect has been seen on the demand for ethanol, which led to a reduction in production and the closure of several plants. According to Geoff Cooper, President and CEO of the RFA (Renewable Fuels Association), the ethanol industry could lose $ 10 Billion due to COVID-19 related issues. Some operators expect a 3 billion gallon decrease in ethanol production for 2020, with a drop of about 20% compared to 2019.

CLAL.it - Production of Ethanol in U.S.

CLAL.it – Production of Ethanol in U.S.

Futures are reflecting the negative trend of the market. CME Futures of July 20, which were $3.79 on February 25, have reached the level of $3.22 on April 20.

 

Soybean production expected +7.7% in Brazil, world’s main producer

Posted on 26/03/2020

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Soybean production increase in South America

Soybean global production for the season 2019/20 is forecast at 341,76 Mio Tons, -4.7% compared to 2018/19 season, but increasing compared to the previous estimates. This increase reflects the higher projected production in Brazil and Argentina.

Further increase in production expected for Brazil and Argentina in the season 2019/2020

For both South American Countries is expected a further increase in production of 1 Mio Ton compared to February prediction, reaching respectively 126 Mio Tons in Brazil and 54 Mio Tons in Argentina.

Brazil confirms itself as the world’s main Soybean producer in the 2019/2020 season, with an expected increment of 7.7% compared to the previous season. The increase of production in Argentina is mainly due to overall favourable conditions in higher-yielding central and north-western farming areas. Forecast for Soybean production in the US is unchanged at 96.84 Mio Tons (-19.6% compared to the previous season).

Considering a higher Soybean production in South America and an expected steady trend for consumption, it is expected a smaller decrease in stocks compared to the previous estimates.

Soybean export is positive, China main destination

Global Soybean export is expected to increase, +2.4% compared to the last season, driven by the higher exports for the main exporting Countries: US (+4.4%) and Brazil (+3.2%). This increase largely offset the projected decrease in export for Argentina (-9.9%).

China, which has accounted for the 57% of world Soybean import in the season 2018/2019, imported 88 Mio Tons in 2019, of which 57.7 Mio Tons from Brazil (65% of the total) and 17 Mio Tons from US (19% of the total). China’s average import price in December 2019 was 408 $/Ton.

TESEO - Soybean Production and Export

TESEO – Soybean Production and Export

Corn: market rally in the coming months?

Posted on 26/02/2020

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Market Trends and Forecasts
World Corn production expected to decrease by 1%.

World corn production for the season 2019/20 is estimated at 1111.59 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 1% compared to the previous season.

CLAL.it - Corn Production

CLAL.it – Corn Production

The US lower Corn production forecast (-4.5%) could limits the surplus available to the export, which is expected in significant decrease. Considering that US Mais production accounts for 31.3% of the total production, this trend could have an impact over global prices.

According to USDA data, Chinese Corn production for the season 2019/20 is projected higher by 1.3% compared to last season, reaching 260.77 Mio Tons, but still not enough to completely meet domestic demand.

In Brazil, Corn collection has been already completed for about 50% of total harvested areas. Local farmers are waiting for adequate rains, which could prevent crop loss.

Favorable climate conditions in Argentina are supporting Corn production, estimated at 50 Mio Tons for the current season, slightly decreasing compared to the excellent 2018/19 season.

Production in Ukraine, the fourth world Corn exporter, is expected to be at the same high levels of the previous season. Ukraine accounts only for the 3% of the global Corn production but it has a significant share on the global Corn export (19%).

Global Corn stocks, according to USDA data, are lowered for the third consecutive year.

CLAL.it - Corn Production and Export

CLAL.it – Corn Production and Export

Export in decline for the main global Players

World Corn export for the season 2019/20 is expected lower compared to the last season. The main exporting countries are reducing their estimates: -16.5% for the US, -14.3% for Argentina and -6.9% for Brazil.

The delay of the brazilian second crop could affect the export of the United States. The exported volumes from the US could overcome the current estimates if the brazilian supply will not be enough to satisfy the demand from trade partners, or if the trade deal US-China will lead to higher chinese purchases.
Projections for trade flows with China are still uncertain following the current issues related to the Coronavirus outbreaks.

CLAL.it - Corn Export

CLAL.it – Corn Export

Market uncertainty, Futures quotes slowing down

The ongoing spread of the Coronavirus through China are generating uncertainty in the financial and commodity markets. This uncertainty is also reflected in the futures’ market, which have maintained a range between $3.95 and $4.05 from mid-December until the first outbreaks of the Coronavirus in late January.  Since the emergence of the disease has begun, old crop futures continue to grind lower with July futures closing on February 25 at $3.79.

Corn July 2020 Futures - CME Group

Corn July 2020 Futures – CME Group

Futures highlight closed contracts with lower prices compared to the previous weeks. Considering the lower Corn production expected for the season 2019/20, it could be possible to see a market Rally on Corn quotes in the next few months

Soybean: Prices on the rise in the new season

Posted on 20/01/2020

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019/2020 season, is forecast at 337.70 Mio Tons, -5.7% compared to the 2018/2019 season, but it is still slightly above the level of the previous forecast.

Soybean total use is continuously growing, and given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 96.67 Mio Tons (-12,34%).

Soybean production in Brazil, expected to be the world’s main producer in the 2019/2020 season, should reach 123 Mio Tons (+5.1% compared to 2018/2019 season). United States’ production is decreasing (19.6%) due to the diminishing of U.S yield of land, especially in North Dakota and South Dakota.

Soybean Production

Global Export

Global export of Soybean for 219/2020 season is expected almost unchanged compared to the previous season. Higher predicted exports from Brazil and U.S. (overall +1,5%) compensate for the expected decrease from Argentina.

Brazil average export price in October is 0.37$ per Kg, while U.S. average export price is 0.36$ per Kg, both prices are increasing compared to last month.

Soybean exporters

Global Import

For the new season, China, the main world Soybean importer, should import more volumes: 85 Mio Tons, +3% compared to 2018/2019 season. China’s average import price in November is 0.40$ per Kg.

Soybean Import

Italian Import

In the first 10 months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports: +29% compared to January-October 2018. Italy has recorded an overall variation of +84.2% of the imported volumes from U.S. and Brazil, which remain the main suppliers.

Soybean Italian Import

Soybean Prices

 

 

World Corn production expected to decrease

Posted on 19/12/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts
World Production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which began on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1108.62 Mio Tons, +0.6% from November outlook. 

Production is expected to decrease by 1.4% compared to the previous season.

Corn World ProductionThe two main world producers of Corn have opposite trends: a lower production is expected for United States (-5.3%), partially offset by higher expectations for China (+1.3%), reflecting increases to both cultivated area and yield. Corn production forecast is unchanged for Brazil and slightly higher for the EU-28 (+0.5%).

U.S. ethanol production is expected to be higher for the months of November and December.

ethanol productionGlobal Export

World Corn exports for the 2019-20 season are expected at 166.51 Mio Tons, -7.6% compared to the 2018-19 season, lower from the record level anticipated in the recent forecasts.
A decrease in exports is estimated for the 4 main players (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), with an overall reduction of 8.3%.

corn exportGlobal Import

The European Union, the main Corn importer, should reduce its purchases (-16.7%).
The growing trend of imports continues for Mexico (+4.8%) and Vietnam (+12.7%), which now ranks 4th among the global.
World Corn imports are expected higher (+2.9%) for the 2019-20 season.

Corn importItalian Import

Italy for the period January-September 2019 increased its imports of Corn by 11.4%. Italian imports from Hungary, Slovenia, Romania and Croatia, are growing sharply, with an overall variation of +43.8%; Ukraina, instead, has reduced its exports towards Italy.

Italy Corn importCorn Prices

Soybean consumption worldwide continues to grow

Posted on 22/11/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019/20 season, which began on October 1st, is forecast at 336.56 Mio Tons, -6% compared to the 2018/19 season.

Soybean total use is constantly growing, and given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 95.42 Mio Tons (-13%).

Production-consumption-stock-soy

Soybean production of Brazil, world’s main producer expected for 2019/20 season, should reach 123 Mio Tons (+5.1% compared to 2018/19 season). United States’ production is decreasing (19.8%). The U.S yield of land is diminishing. There is also a lower yield in Canada and India.

Yearly-Soybean-Production

Global Export

Global export of Soybean for 2019/20 season is expected practically unchanged compared to the previous season. Higher projected exports from Brazil and U.S. offset for the expected decrease from Argentina. First weekly data show a slight increase of U.S. export of Soybean in the new season.

Soybean-main-exporters

Global Import

For the new season, China, the main world Soybean importer, should import more volumes: +3% compared to 2018/19 season.

Soybean-main-importers

Italian Import

In the first 8 months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports: +27.7% compared to January-August 2018. U.S. and Brazil are the main suppliers more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

Italy-Imports-Soybean

Soybean-prices

United States: Corn used for ethanol is lowered

Posted on 17/10/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which began on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1104.01 Mio Tons, lower from the record level anticipated in the recent forecasts.

corn-production

Production is expected to decrease by 1.7% compared to the previous season, reflecting lower production in the United States (due to a decline in harvested area) and China, the main world producers. Corn production is forecast unchanged for Brazil and slightly higher for the EU-28 (+0.9%).

U.S. Corn used for ethanol is lower based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration.

ethanol

Global export

World Corn exports for the 2019-20 season are expected at 169.9 Mio Tons (-6.3% compared to the 2018-19 season). A decrease in exports is estimated for the 4 main players (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which account for 87% of the market share.

corn-export

Global import

The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce its purchases (-15.3%).
The growing trend of Mexican imports continues (+ 4.8%).

corn-import

Italian import

Data for the first seven months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +9.5% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Hungary (+13.9%) and Slovenia (+273.4%), which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine (-13.6%).

italy-corn-import

corn-price

U.S. Soybean exports recover

Posted on 18/09/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019-20 season, beginning on October 1, is forecast at 341.39 Mio Tons, -5.4% compared to the 2018-19 season.

Soybean total use record a continuous increase and, given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 99.19 Mio Tons (-11.8%).

soy-production

In the 2018-19 season the United States were the first World Soybean Producer with a production of 123.7 Mio Tons, but for the 2019-20 season a production of 98.9 Mio Tons is expected (-20.1%), on a lower yield forecast at 47.9 bushels per acre.

Brazil will surpass the United States as the largest producer of Soybeans in 2019-20, taking over the top ranking, with a share of 36% and a production of 123 Mio Tons (+ 5.1%), which also reflects the yield increase.

soy-yields

Global export

For 2018-19 Soybean exports for Brazil are lowered based on lower-than-expected shipments during the past few months. However, higher-than-expected exports by Argentina and the United States, particularly to China, are offsetting.

The weekly data show that, after a significant decrease in the first half of the season, US exports have started to recover since April, and in August they exceeded the levels of 2018. In the period January-July 2019 the United States, after the slowdown in 2018, increased Soybean export to China by + 33%.

For 2019-20, Soybean exports are expected higher for the three main exporters (Brazil, USA, Argentina).

soy-export

Global import

China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.

soy-import

Italian import

In the first half of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +23.3%, compared to January-June 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

soy-italysoy-price

Corn: U.S. exports reflect competitiveness from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine

Posted on 23/08/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1108.24 Mio Tons, deviating from the record level anticipated in May. Production is expected to decrease by 1.3% compared to the previous season, reflecting lower production in the United States and China, the main world producers.

corn-production

Ukraine production is projected record high at 36.5 Mio Tons, reflecting increases to both area and yield.

Also EU Corn production is raised, as Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria are producing more Corn than expected.

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +18.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. An overall decrease of 3.6% is expected for the new season. Only Ukraine should further increase exports.

corn-export

Monthly updates for the first half of 2019 indicate exports of 26.4 Mio Tons for the United States, -28.5% compared to January-June 2018. For 2019-20 U.S. exports are lowered (-2.4%) reflecting export competitiveness and expectations of increasing competition from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.

us-weekly

Global import

The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-10.6%). The growing trend of Mexican imports continues (+ 8.8%).

corn-import

Italian import

Data for the first five months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.4% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania.

italian-corn-import

corn-price

Record soybean production forecast for Brazil in the new season

Posted on 18/07/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

World Soybean production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on October 1, 2019, is estimated at 347.04 Mio Tons, -4.4% from the previous season.

Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as top Soybean producer, with a share of 35% due to a significant production increase (+5.1% compared to the current season). Projections for the United States are for lower planted and harvested area, and Soybean production in estimated at -15.4%. Soybean supply is slowing also for Argentina (-5.4%).

Soybean production

Global export

Global Soybean export, down 1.9% in the current season, is expected to recover in the new season (+0.7%), due to higher exports for the United States.

Looking at the 2018-19 export data, in the first 5 months of 2019 the U.S. recorded -2.7%, with lower volumes sold to China and Japan, in comparison with last year.

U.S. Soybean export

Global import

China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.

Soybean top importers

For the EU-28, imports are forecast to slow down (-4.4%). EU data for the first 5 months of 2019 show a +3.6% increase in Soybean imports.

Italian import

In the first four months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +16.8%, compared to January-April 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

Italian Soybean importsSoybeans price

Corn production: record forecasts for the new season

Posted on 23/05/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at the record level of 1133.78 Mio Tons, +1.3% compared to the current 2018-19 season. With a decrease in initial stocks and an increase in total use, final stocks are estimated at 314.71 Mio Tons (-3.4% y-o-y).

 WORLD | Corn Production, Utilization and Stocks

Corn production forecasts in the main countries estimate higher crops in the United States, Brazil and the EU-28, the first, third and fourth Country Producers respectively. Corn production in China, on the other hand, is expected to slow (1.3%).

 WORLD | Corn - Main producers

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +14.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Stability is expected for the new season (+ 0.8%).
Increased exports out of Argentina and Brazil during 2018-19 are expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of 2019-20.WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

Global import

Exports are mainly oriented to Mexico, South Korea, Vietnam and Iran. The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-14.9%).WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

Italian import

Data for the first two months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.6% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania. ITALY | Corn Import - Main suppliersCorn prices

EU Soybean import continues to be high

Posted on 26/04/2019

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Global Soybean production for 2018-19 is estimated at a record level of 360.6 Mio Tons. The slight increase compared to previous estimates, reflects favorable weather in Brazil, the world’s Soybean biggest exporter, in particular in the Rio Grande do Sul, where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Soybean production in Brazil for the 2018-19 season is expected at 117 Mio Tons. The production is lower (-4.1%) compared to the previous season.

U.S. Soybean export
to China-35% Jan-Feb 2019 y-o-y

Brazil’s exports are expected at 79.5 Mio Tons (+4.4% from the previous season) and only partially offset the lower exports expected for the United States (-11.9%). The data for the first two months of 2019 relating to US exports show a decrease compared to January-February 2018, with China (the main buyer) which reduced its purchases by 35%.

For the European Union, the second world Soybean importer after China, imports are expected to increase by 8.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. In the months of January and February 2019 there is a growth of 1.4% with a significant reduction in imports from Brazil and Canada, more than offset by imports from the United States (+ 147.7% compared to January-February 2018). Spain and Italy are the EU countries that have mainly increased imports from the US, respectively: + 63.9% and + 73.7%.

TESEO.clal.it - China is the world's largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it – China is the world’s largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it - In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO.clal.it – In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019
TESEO-Soybean-export-April-2019.pdf (3 MB)
TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019

Source: USDA, ISTAT, IHS

 

Ukraine boosts Corn exports

Posted on 17/04/2019

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Global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at 1107.4 Mio Tons, higher than the previous forecasts and +2.9% from last season. Brazil  Corn  production is raised,  reflecting improved yield prospects for  second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger area.

For the United States, the largest Corn producer in the world, production is expected at 366.3 Mio Tons (-1.3% compared to the previous season) and Corn used  to  produce  ethanol  is  lowered.

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

In 2018 the United States increased exports to all the main purchasing countries: Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan. Forecasts for the season (September 2018 – August 2019) show a weakening of US exports, reflecting competition from Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine.

The EU-28 is the main Corn importer and is increasingly dependent on imports from extra-EU countries. In 2018 the EU imported 21.7 Mio Tons of Corn, and exported 2.2 Mio Tons. The trade balance therefore shows -19.5 Mio Tons in 2018, while in 2017 it was -14.6 Mio Tons.

EU Corn imports grew by +32.4% in 2018 compared to 2017. 52% of the Corn comes from Ukraine, which exported to the EU 11.4 Mio Tons (+32.8%). Brazil, with a 22% share, is the second supplier (4.8 Mio Tons, +12.5%). European imports from the United States and Canada, third and fourth suppliers, have doubled compared to 2017.

TESEO.clal.it – Largest Corn exporters

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn Exporters

TESEO.clal.it - EU Corn Imports

TESEO.clal.it – EU Corn Imports

Corn Report - April 2019
Corn-Report-April-2019.pdf (1 MB)
Corn Report - April 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

EU Soybean import from the US: the boom continues

Posted on 25/03/2019

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Global Soybean production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at the record level of 360.1 Mio Tons, although slightly down (-0.3%) compared to last month forecast, reflecting a lower production decline expected in Brazil (-0.5 Mio Tons), given the dry weather conditions and the lower yields in the States of Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias.

U.S. Soybean production is expected at 123.7 Mio Tons. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is raised on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year.

TESEO.clal.it - Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

TESEO.clal.it – Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

European Union and China are the top destinations of US Soybean. With the entry into force of Chinese duties in July 2018, US exports to China dropped and recorded 8.3 Mio Tons in 2018 (-69% from 2017).

EU Soy import
from the U.S.1,25Mio TonsJan 2019 y-o-y

The agreement between Juncker and Trump in July 2018 supported US Soybean export to the European Union: +61% in 2018 compared to 2017, equal to 7.7 Mio Tons (51% of EU total Soybean import). The Netherlands and Spain are the main European buyers. Italy also significantly increased Soybean purchases from the US, for a total of 663,100 tons. Brazil is the second EU Soybean supplier, which imported 5.4 Mio Tons in 2018 (+7% compared to 2017).

The first data for 2019, relating to January, confirm the boom in European soybean imports from the US: 1.25 Mio Tons, +184% compared to January 2018, at an average CIF price of € 321.30 / ton.

TESEO.clal.it - US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it – US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it - EU Soybean import

TESEO.clal.it – EU Soybean import

Soybean Report - March 2019
TESEO-SOY-Report-March-2019.pdf (3 MB)
Soybean Report - March 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

Argentina: higher Corn supplies boost the export [Corn and Soybean - n°1/2019]

Posted on 22/02/2019

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Global Corn production for 2018-19 is estimated at 1099.61 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the December outlook. The expected decrease in the United States (-1.4%) is offset by higher yields in China (+0.5%), EU-28 (+0.5%) and Argentina (+8.2%), with abundant rainfall over the past two months boosting yield prospects.

Global Soybean production is expected at 360.99 Mio Tons, -2.2% compared to previous forecast, reflecting crop reductions in the three main Soybean producers: U.S. (-1.2%), Brazil (-4.1%) and Argentina (-0.9%), due to a reduction in harvested area that is partly offset by increased yields.

US crop yields are projected lower, and Corn and Soybean production is expected to decline more than consumption, so final stocks are forecast at -2.6% for Corn and -4.7% for Soy. There is a reduction in the Corn used for ethanol.

Argentina+38%Corn export (outlook 2018-19 from previous season)

On the Corn export side, record levels for Argentina (29 Mio Tons, +38%) and for Ukraine (28.5 Mio Tons, +58%) are expected for the 2018-19 season. Global exports are expected to increase by +14.4% compared to the previous season. Soybean exports are forecast slightly higher (+0.9%), with greater exports from Brazil and Argentina, which offset the decline for the United States (-11.9% compared to the 2017-18 season).

Forecasts of global Soybean ending stocks have been revised downwards, reflecting the historical balance sheets revisions for Argentina and Brazil, however the level remains high (106.72 Mio Tons).

Source: USDA

TESEO.clal.it - Global Corn exports are expected to increase +14.4% in 2018-19

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn exports are expected to increase +14.4% in 2018-19

Corn & Soybeans - February 2019: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soy_.pdf (4 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - February 2019: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Weather supports Soybean Supply from Brazil [Corn and Soybean - n°12/2018]

Posted on 21/12/2018

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Global Corn production for 2018-19 is forecast at 1,099.9 Mio Tons, +0.1% from November projections, with increases for Ukraine (record production forecast at 35 Mio Tons), and for the European Union, especially for Romania.

U.S. most recent data on ethanol production show a decrease, therefore lower Corn used for ethanol is expected. With no production and export changes, ending stocks are projected at 45.2 Mio Tons, higher from last month.

Global 2018-19 Soybean production is forecast at 369.2 Mio Tons, +0.5% from November forecast. The increase is mainly due to greater Soybean production for Brazil, the second largest Soybean Producer: +1.2% from previous outlook, +1.4% from previous season, reflecting favorable weather conditions in the Center-West region.

Brazil+6.3%Soybean export (outlook 2018-19 from previous season)

Large competitive supplies in Brazil are expected to boost the export: +5.2% compared to previous estimates,  +6.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. As a result, exports from Argentina, Canada and Paraguay decreased and their stocks increased.

U.S. Soybean ending stock are projected at a record 26 Mio Tons, with production and export unchanged.

Source: USDA

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - December 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-DEC1.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - December 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

China revised Corn data: tripled stocks [Corn and Soybean - n°11/2018]

Posted on 16/11/2018

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68%of Corn stocks are held by China   (forecast 2018-19)

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (N.B.S.) in October revised its supply estimates for Corn in China from 2007-08 through 2017-18. For the 2018-19 season, beginning stocks are forecast at 223 Mio Tons (+180% from October estimates), and ending stocks are expected at 207 Mio Tons (+180%). China’s stocks are forecast to account for 68% of global Corn stocks (followed by the U.S. with a share of 14%).

Global Corn stocks reflect this revision and are estimated at 308 Mio Tons, +93% compared to last month’s estimates. US stocks, on the other hand, are expected to decrease (-4.2%).

Excluding China, world production is almost unchanged, in fact higher production in Argentina, Kenya, Russia and Moldova offset the expected decreases in the EU (in particular in Hungary, Poland and Germany) and in the USA (-1%, on a reduced yield forecast).

The 2018-19 global Soybean production is reduced -2% from October estimates. Lower production for the United States and Argentina is partly offset by increases for China, India and Ukraine.

U.S. Soybean production is forecast -1.9% on lower yield, which is projected at 52.1 bushels per acre, -1 bushel.

South America is expected to capture more of

China’s Soybean market

U.S. Soybean exports are affected by lower imports projected for China, due to the customs tariffs imposed by China, and are expected at -7.8%. In fact, China is forecast to import less Soybean (-4.4%). South America is expected to capture more of China’s Soybean market while the U.S. is likely to capture more share in other markets.

U.S. Corn exports are reduced -1% based on expectations of increased competition from Ukraine.

World - Corn Ending stocks | Total and % share

World – Corn Ending stocks | Total and % share

Source: USDA

 

Corn & Soybeans - November 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-NOV18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - November 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

 

U.S. Corn and Soy production slips [Corn and Soybean - n°10/2018]

Posted on 19/10/2018

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Starting from the report of November 2018, the data show a significative variation, following the large revision for Corn data in China, made by Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.

The global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is expected to decrease slightly (1068.3 Mio Tons, -0.1%) compared to the estimates made in September, but remains higher than the previous season (+2.8%). The world Soybean production, instead, is confirmed at the record level of 369.5 Mio Tons, +9.5% compared to the 2017-18 season.

In the U.S. is forecast a reduction in yields for Corn and in harvested area for Soybean, resulting in a lower production of the two crops compared to previous forecasts (Corn: -0.3%, Soybean: -0.1%). Corn supplies are forecast record high, as a smaller crop is more than offset by an increase in beginning stocks.

An increase in exports for the 2018-19 season is projected for the 4 main exporters of Corn (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which will overall increase their exports by 14.7% compared to 2017-18 season. U.S exports are supported by a competitive price and reduced exports for Russia.

For the 2 main exporters of Soybean (Brazil and United States), lower exports are expected for 2018-19 season, y-o-y, however Argentina should offset the decrease by recovering from the previous season’s drought.

 

Corn and Soybean | Global producers by share

Corn and Soybean | Global producers by share

WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

WORLD | Corn Top Exporters – Yearly trend

Source: USDA

Corn & Soybeans - October 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-OCT18.pdf (2 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - October 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

Chinese Soybean import slows down, while production increases [Corn and Soybean - n ° 9/2018]

Posted on 20/09/2018

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The Global Corn and Soybean production is expected to increase in the season 2018-19, respectively of +0.7% (1.069 Mio T) and +0.6% (369.32 Mio T), compared to August estimates.

In the United States, the world’s largest producer of Corn and Soybean, yields are forecasted higher, resulting into an increment in crops: +1.6% for Corn and +2.3% for Soybean.

+8.3%Corn import in EU-28 (forecast 2018-19)

Corn production is higher in the EU-28, reflecting the increases for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and France. The EU-28 outlook, the largest global Corn importer (13% of total share), is for a higher domestic demand, and imports are raised by +8.3% compared to 2017-18 season.

WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

WORLD | Corn Top Importers – Yearly trend

In China, the fourth world producer of Soy, Soybean production is expected higher (+3.4%). Imports are reduced 1 Mio t to 94 Mio t as slower growth in protein meal demand and lower crush in 2017/18 continue into the next marketing year, reducing the expectations of record imports estimated in May 2018.

Global Corn Ending stocks are forecasted at 157.03 Mio T, with an increase if compared to the last outlook, but they are still below the level of the previous five seasons. Also Global Soybean stocks are raised, reaching a record level of 108.26 Mio t.

WORLD | Soybean Top Importers - Yearly trend

WORLD | Soybean Top Importers – Yearly trend

Corn & Soybeans - September 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.
CLAL-Slideshow-Corn-and-Soybean-SEP-2018.pdf (3 MB)
Corn & Soybeans - September 2018: Report about prices, production and global trade prospects for 2018-19 season.

UK trade data for the period Jan - Mar 2020 are provisional