Corn and Soybean: world market trends

TESEO offers a monthly report on the key markets of Corn and Soybean, the two feed ingredients that have the greatest impact on the cost of animal feed. Keep yourself informed on a monthly basis with the summary or with the full PDF report containing the projections on production, consumption, trade and stock levels processed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA-FAS) and combined with international prices (CME Group in Chicago), plus a focus on Italy. The elaborations by the TESEO team simplify data reading and allow immediate analysis.

Corn and Soybean: prices and market updates | March 2021

Posted on 18/03/2021

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USDA Forecast of March shows signs of stability in the Corn and Soybean markets. World production estimates have been revised slightly upwards, positively influencing the final stocks, which, however, remain at significantly lower levels than the previous year.

CORN

USDA released the March update on the Corn and Soybean markets.

World Corn production for the season 2020/21 is estimated to increase slightly from the previous forecast, due to positive changes in India, South Africa and Bangladesh. The estimates for the main producers, USA, China and Brazil, remain unchanged.

The estimate of global ending stocks confirms a decrease of -5.1% compared to the previous year.

The average selling prices from March 1st to 11th recorded in West Iowa (USA) stood at $ 205/ton, down by -0.9% compared to the previous month. In Brazil, on the other hand, the average price of Corn from March 1st to 11th was slightly higher than in February, with an average price of $260.6 / ton.

In Italy, Corn prices are substantially stable. Current prices in Bologna for Italian corn range between 229€/Ton and 235€/Ton.

corn-prod-stocks

SOY

The global ending stocks of Soybeans are revised slightly upwards, although they remain at significantly lower levels than the previous year (-12.8%). The March forecast estimates an increase in final stocks for China and Brazil, almost entirely offset by the decrease expected for Argentina.

The production estimates for the current year are revised upwards in Brazil for 1 million tons, and downwards in Argentina for 0.5 million tons. In Argentina, in fact, the harvest could be affected by the drought conditions recorded in recent weeks.

soybean-production

Average US Soybean selling prices from March 1st to 11th increased by +2.7% compared to the previous month, settling at $548.8/ Ton. Increases in local currency soybean prices also occurred in Argentina and Brazil, mainly due to inflation.

The average price of Soybeans quoted on 11 March in Bologna increased significantly to € 546/Ton, + 4.4% compared to the previous price.

For more details on the dairy, agricultural and swine markets, follow us on our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it

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Corn and Soybean: prices and market updates | February 2021 [VIDEO]

Posted on 17/02/2021

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Corn and Soybean prices remain high in the major markets. Chinese imports of Corn could triple this year, while for the United States a reduction in Soybean stocks is estimated, of -77.2%.

Michele from the CLAL.it and TESEO Team illustrates the forecast and the market trends in the following video.

immagine-play

CORN

USDA released the February update on the Corn and Soybean markets.

Slightly more optimistic is the forecast of February 10 regarding World Corn Production 2020/21, if compared with the previous forecast. Production is now estimated to rise by 17.5 million tonnes compared to the 2019/20 season.

On the other hand, the Consumption forecast shows a slight reduction, going from + 1.7% to + 1.5%.
As a result, the erosion of the World Corn Stocks expected for the 2020/21 season is more contained (-5.4% compared to the previous year).

corn-stocks

Chinese imports of Corn could triple this year, to the advantage of the United States, whose exports to China are on the rise.
The import of the European Union (including the UK) is estimated at 15.5 million tons, 3.1 million tons less than in the 2019/20 season.

Average selling prices from February 1st to 10th recorded in West Iowa (USA) remain at high levels, standing at $ 206.5 /Ton, up + 7.1% compared to the previous month.
Also in France, the average price of Corn from February 1st to 12th is slightly higher than in January, with an average price of 209.7 € / Ton.
Current prices in Bologna for Italian corn range between 230€/Ton and 236€/Ton.

bologna-corn-price

SOY

The latest USDA Forecast estimates an increase in Soybean Consumption compared to the previous outlook. This leads to a further decrease in final stocks for the current year: -11.49 million tons compared to the 2019/20 season.

The decline in stocks is mainly attributable to the United States, for which is estimated a reduction in inventories of -77.2%  compared to the previous season.

Average Soybean prices in the US and Brazil show signs of stability.
The average selling price from February 1st to 10th in Western Illinois (USA) is $ 529.7 / Ton. The average price over the same period in Brazil stood at $ 508.4/Ton.
The average price of Soybeans quoted on February 11 in Bologna is steady at € 500/Ton.

us-soybean-price

For more details on the dairy, agricultural and swine markets, follow us on our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it.

 

Corn and Soybean: prices and market updates | January 2021

Posted on 03/02/2021

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2021 began with an increase in Corn and Soybean prices in the main global markets.
Michele of the CLAL.it and TESEO Team describes the causes in the following video.

The average prices of Corn and Soybean in January have increased significantly in the main global markets. Specifically, in the United States the price has increased by +16% for Corn and by +14.4% for Soybeans, compared to December 2020.

The increase in overseas prices of these two agricultural products is also affecting the main European and Italian markets. The average prices quoted on January 21 in Bologna are: 225 €/Ton for national Corn for zootechnical use and 498 €/Ton for national Soybeans.

These bullish trends increase the costs related to livestock feeding for farmers.

Simulated Feed Ration

What are the main reasons for these increases?

The supply of Corn and Soybean seems not able to meet the global demand.

In January, USDA revised downward the stocks of Corn and Soybean, respectively -1.8% and -1.5% compared to previous forecasts. At the end of the 2020/21 season, the stocks of these two agricultural products are estimated to decrease by -6.3% for Corn and -11.6% for Soybean.

The global production of Corn and Soybean was also revised downward compared to the December forecast, by approximately 10 million tons of Corn and 1 million tons of Soybeans.

The main causes of this revision are the drought in South America and the lower US harvests.

For more details on the dairy, agricultural and swine markets, follow us on our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it.

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Soybean: prices and market updates | November 2020 [VIDEO]

Posted on 04/12/2020

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World Soybean Production is expected to grow for the new season, driven by the United States and Brazil, while China is confirmed as the main destination for the export of Soybean.
Soy prices increased in November in the main global markets.

Michele from the CLAL Team illustrates the Soybean market trend in the following video.

Soybean Global Production for the season September 2020 – August 2021 is estimated to decrease slightly compared to the previous forecast, but it is still increasing by +7.7% compared to the 2019-20 season (USDA Forecast).

Production is expected to grow for the two main global players, Brazil (+5.6%) and the United States (+17.4%). Production estimates are positive also for Argentina and the European Union.

soybean-production

Global Export of Soybean for the 2020-21 season is estimated to increase slightly, +1.9% compared to the previous season, driven by the positive trend of US exports (+31.2%).

Exports from Brazil and Argentina are expected to decrease. The October data show a reduction in exports, respectively -50.9% and -91% compared to October 2019.

The main destination for the Soybean export remains China, which accounts for about the ⅔ of the total import. For the 2020-21 season, China is expected to increase its Import by 1.5%, reaching 100 Mio Tons. In October, China imported about 8.7 Mio Tons of Soybean, +2.5 Mio Tons compared to October 2019.

soybean-import

The European Union for the period January – September 2020 imported more than 12 Mio Tons of Soybean, recording an increase of +7.7% compared to the same period of 2019. However, for the 2020-21 season, the European Import is expected to decrease by -1.3%.

Soybean prices continue to rise in the main global markets.
The average November price in Argentina is $341 per Ton, +7% compared to the previous month and +36.4% compared to November 2019. The trend is positive also for the United States, with the USDA estimating an average seasonal price increase by over 20% for the 2020/21 season.

In Italy, the price of National Soybean has increased significantly. The average price of November in Bologna is 416€ per Ton, +7.3% compared to the previous month and +22% compared to November 2019.

Register to our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it to be always up to date with the latest information about the dairy, the agricultural and the pork market.

Thank you for following us, from Michele Badolato and the CLAL Team. 

soybean-prices

Corn: prices and market updates | November 2020 [VIDEO]

Posted on 18/11/2020

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World Corn Production and Export are expected to grow for the new season, driven by the United States and Brazil.
Corn prices increased in the USA, Argentina and some EU countries, including Italy.

Michele from the CLAL Team illustrates the Corn market trend in the following video.

copertina_EN_play

World Corn Production for the season September 2020 – August 2021 is projected at 1,144.6 Mio Tons, according to USDA. The forecast, updated in November, is slightly lower than the previous estimate, but it still shows a year-over-year rise by +2.5%.

The increase in production is driven by the United States (+6.5%) and Brazil (+7.8%). Production in the European Union, Argentina and Ukraine is expected to decrease due to drought conditions.

corn-us-outlook

The forecast of Corn Export for the 2020-21 season is positive, with an expected variation of +8.0% compared to the 2019-20 agricultural year. Also this increase is driven by the United States (+49.0%) and Brazil (+14.7%).

The European Union, in the period January – September 2020, exported 3.142.400 mio tons of corn, +15.4% compared to the first 9 months of 2019. However, for the 2020-2021 season, a significant reduction is expected. Exports from Argentina and Russia are also estimated to decrease.

corn-export

Corn prices continue to rise in the USA. The average November price in West Iowa is $156.8 per Ton, +5.1% compared to the previous month.  Also in Argentina the price rose significantly, starting from June, and the average monthly price of the Mercado Rosario is $190 per ton.

This trend is also reflected in the prices in The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Italy.  The current prices in Bologna for Italian corn range between 194€/Ton and 200€/Ton.

For more details on the dairy, agricultural and swine markets, follow us on our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it.

Corn prices Argentina

China: Soy consumption at record levels in 2020/21 season

Posted on 21/05/2020

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Global Production

Soybean Global production for the season 2019/20 is projected at 336.11 Mio Tons (-6.7% on 2018/19), slightly decreasing compared to the previous estimates.

Brazil Soybean production is estimated at 124 Mio Tons for the season 2019/20 (+4.2% on 2018/19).

The increase in production is driven by the increase in the harvested area, +3% compared the last season, and a higher yield per hectare (+3%). The only exception is the Rio Grande do Sul State, where a decrease in production is expected due to drought.

Soybean production for the United States and Argentina is expected to decrease compared both to the previous season, respectively to 96.78 Mio Tons (-19.7%), and 51 Mio Tons (-7.8%), and to April estimates. In Argentina, unfavourable weather conditions have reduced yields by -10%.

TESEO.it - Soybean Top Producers

TESEO.it – Soybean Top Producers

Global soybean production in 2020/21 is forecast to surge to 362.8 million tons, up 8 percent from the 2019/20 estimate. For United States and Brazil, the main producing Countries, it is expected an increase in harvested area and yields. Production is estimated at 131 Mio Tons for Brazil, and at 121 Mio Tons for the US.

TESEO.it - Map of Soybean Yields

TESEO.it – Map of Soybean Yields

Consumption, Export and Prices

Soybean consumption for the 2019/20 season is stable at 348 Mio Tons, while for the 2020/21 it is expected at a record level.

The world export of Soybean 2019/20 is expected to increase (+3.8% on 2018-19), reaching the level of 153.98 Mio Tons.

Brazil’s exports are estimated at 84 Mio Tons, (+12.6% on 2018-19), reflecting the increased trade during March and April, supported by a greater competitiveness in the markets due to the weaker currency.

On the contrary, US exports, which are suffering from the competition with Brazil, are estimated at 45.59 Mio Tons, (-4.2% on 2018/19).

Brazil’s average export prices for March 2020 are down to $345 per ton, while the US prices are slightly higher at $366 per ton.

TESEO.it - Average Soybean Export Prices

TESEO.it – Average Soybean Export Prices

In 2020/21, China is expected to account for over half of global consumption growth, mainly due to the expansion of the Chinese swine herd, which is recovering from African swine fever.

Corn: the demand for Ethanol falls down

Posted on 21/04/2020

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Global Corn Production

Corn production for the season 2019-20 is estimated at 1113.02 Mio Tons, adjusted higher compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 0.9% compared to the previous season.

Global Corn production is forecasted up with larger crops in the European Union and Belarus more than offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Laos.

The US Corn production forecast is unchanged compared to the last estimates (-4.5% compared 2018/2019 season). Some operators believe that Coronavirus should not  delay farmers from planting. The USDA has estimated Corn acreage in the US for 2020-21 (September-August) at 96.99 million acres, 4% higher on year, and the highest after 2012-13. The U.S. season-average farm price decreased to $3.60 per bushel, down $0,20 compared to last season.

Corn production forecast is expected unchanged for China, Brazil and Argentina compared to the previous outlook.

Following the above-average rains in March, CONAB estimates good harvests in Mato Grosso area in Brazil, which represents approximately 46 percent of Brazil’s second-season crop. In the areas located south of Mato Grosso, March rains were below-average.

CLAL.it - Map Corn Yields

CLAL.it – Map Corn Yields

Global Corn Export: slight increase compared to the last outlook

Corn export for the season 2019-20 is projected slightly higher compared to last estimates, but it is still lower compared to the 2018-19 season.

April’s export forecast shows an increase for UE and Argentina, while a decrease for Russia.

Corn export outlook for US and Brazil is unchanged compared to the last forecast, confirming a negative trend (US -16.5% e Brazil -9.4% vs season 2018-19).

CLAL.it - Corn Export

CLAL.it – Corn Export

ETHANOL: Fall in demand

Following the collapse in the demand for gasoline, a domino effect has been seen on the demand for ethanol, which led to a reduction in production and the closure of several plants. According to Geoff Cooper, President and CEO of the RFA (Renewable Fuels Association), the ethanol industry could lose $ 10 Billion due to COVID-19 related issues. Some operators expect a 3 billion gallon decrease in ethanol production for 2020, with a drop of about 20% compared to 2019.

CLAL.it - Production of Ethanol in U.S.

CLAL.it – Production of Ethanol in U.S.

Futures are reflecting the negative trend of the market. CME Futures of July 20, which were $3.79 on February 25, have reached the level of $3.22 on April 20.

 

Soybean production expected +7.7% in Brazil, world’s main producer

Posted on 26/03/2020

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Soybean production increase in South America

Soybean global production for the season 2019/20 is forecast at 341,76 Mio Tons, -4.7% compared to 2018/19 season, but increasing compared to the previous estimates. This increase reflects the higher projected production in Brazil and Argentina.

Further increase in production expected for Brazil and Argentina in the season 2019/2020

For both South American Countries is expected a further increase in production of 1 Mio Ton compared to February prediction, reaching respectively 126 Mio Tons in Brazil and 54 Mio Tons in Argentina.

Brazil confirms itself as the world’s main Soybean producer in the 2019/2020 season, with an expected increment of 7.7% compared to the previous season. The increase of production in Argentina is mainly due to overall favourable conditions in higher-yielding central and north-western farming areas. Forecast for Soybean production in the US is unchanged at 96.84 Mio Tons (-19.6% compared to the previous season).

Considering a higher Soybean production in South America and an expected steady trend for consumption, it is expected a smaller decrease in stocks compared to the previous estimates.

Soybean export is positive, China main destination

Global Soybean export is expected to increase, +2.4% compared to the last season, driven by the higher exports for the main exporting Countries: US (+4.4%) and Brazil (+3.2%). This increase largely offset the projected decrease in export for Argentina (-9.9%).

China, which has accounted for the 57% of world Soybean import in the season 2018/2019, imported 88 Mio Tons in 2019, of which 57.7 Mio Tons from Brazil (65% of the total) and 17 Mio Tons from US (19% of the total). China’s average import price in December 2019 was 408 $/Ton.

TESEO - Soybean Production and Export

TESEO – Soybean Production and Export

Corn: market rally in the coming months?

Posted on 26/02/2020

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Market Trends and Forecasts
World Corn production expected to decrease by 1%.

World corn production for the season 2019/20 is estimated at 1111.59 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 1% compared to the previous season.

CLAL.it - Corn Production

CLAL.it – Corn Production

The US lower Corn production forecast (-4.5%) could limits the surplus available to the export, which is expected in significant decrease. Considering that US Mais production accounts for 31.3% of the total production, this trend could have an impact over global prices.

According to USDA data, Chinese Corn production for the season 2019/20 is projected higher by 1.3% compared to last season, reaching 260.77 Mio Tons, but still not enough to completely meet domestic demand.

In Brazil, Corn collection has been already completed for about 50% of total harvested areas. Local farmers are waiting for adequate rains, which could prevent crop loss.

Favorable climate conditions in Argentina are supporting Corn production, estimated at 50 Mio Tons for the current season, slightly decreasing compared to the excellent 2018/19 season.

Production in Ukraine, the fourth world Corn exporter, is expected to be at the same high levels of the previous season. Ukraine accounts only for the 3% of the global Corn production but it has a significant share on the global Corn export (19%).

Global Corn stocks, according to USDA data, are lowered for the third consecutive year.

CLAL.it - Corn Production and Export

CLAL.it – Corn Production and Export

Export in decline for the main global Players

World Corn export for the season 2019/20 is expected lower compared to the last season. The main exporting countries are reducing their estimates: -16.5% for the US, -14.3% for Argentina and -6.9% for Brazil.

The delay of the brazilian second crop could affect the export of the United States. The exported volumes from the US could overcome the current estimates if the brazilian supply will not be enough to satisfy the demand from trade partners, or if the trade deal US-China will lead to higher chinese purchases.
Projections for trade flows with China are still uncertain following the current issues related to the Coronavirus outbreaks.

CLAL.it - Corn Export

CLAL.it – Corn Export

Market uncertainty, Futures quotes slowing down

The ongoing spread of the Coronavirus through China are generating uncertainty in the financial and commodity markets. This uncertainty is also reflected in the futures’ market, which have maintained a range between $3.95 and $4.05 from mid-December until the first outbreaks of the Coronavirus in late January.  Since the emergence of the disease has begun, old crop futures continue to grind lower with July futures closing on February 25 at $3.79.

Corn July 2020 Futures - CME Group

Corn July 2020 Futures – CME Group

Futures highlight closed contracts with lower prices compared to the previous weeks. Considering the lower Corn production expected for the season 2019/20, it could be possible to see a market Rally on Corn quotes in the next few months

Soybean: Prices on the rise in the new season

Posted on 20/01/2020

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019/2020 season, is forecast at 337.70 Mio Tons, -5.7% compared to the 2018/2019 season, but it is still slightly above the level of the previous forecast.

Soybean total use is continuously growing, and given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 96.67 Mio Tons (-12,34%).

Soybean production in Brazil, expected to be the world’s main producer in the 2019/2020 season, should reach 123 Mio Tons (+5.1% compared to 2018/2019 season). United States’ production is decreasing (19.6%) due to the diminishing of U.S yield of land, especially in North Dakota and South Dakota.

Soybean Production

Global Export

Global export of Soybean for 219/2020 season is expected almost unchanged compared to the previous season. Higher predicted exports from Brazil and U.S. (overall +1,5%) compensate for the expected decrease from Argentina.

Brazil average export price in October is 0.37$ per Kg, while U.S. average export price is 0.36$ per Kg, both prices are increasing compared to last month.

Soybean exporters

Global Import

For the new season, China, the main world Soybean importer, should import more volumes: 85 Mio Tons, +3% compared to 2018/2019 season. China’s average import price in November is 0.40$ per Kg.

Soybean Import

Italian Import

In the first 10 months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports: +29% compared to January-October 2018. Italy has recorded an overall variation of +84.2% of the imported volumes from U.S. and Brazil, which remain the main suppliers.

Soybean Italian Import

Soybean Prices

 

 

World Corn production expected to decrease

Posted on 19/12/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts
World Production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which began on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1108.62 Mio Tons, +0.6% from November outlook. 

Production is expected to decrease by 1.4% compared to the previous season.

Corn World ProductionThe two main world producers of Corn have opposite trends: a lower production is expected for United States (-5.3%), partially offset by higher expectations for China (+1.3%), reflecting increases to both cultivated area and yield. Corn production forecast is unchanged for Brazil and slightly higher for the EU-28 (+0.5%).

U.S. ethanol production is expected to be higher for the months of November and December.

ethanol productionGlobal Export

World Corn exports for the 2019-20 season are expected at 166.51 Mio Tons, -7.6% compared to the 2018-19 season, lower from the record level anticipated in the recent forecasts.
A decrease in exports is estimated for the 4 main players (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), with an overall reduction of 8.3%.

corn exportGlobal Import

The European Union, the main Corn importer, should reduce its purchases (-16.7%).
The growing trend of imports continues for Mexico (+4.8%) and Vietnam (+12.7%), which now ranks 4th among the global.
World Corn imports are expected higher (+2.9%) for the 2019-20 season.

Corn importItalian Import

Italy for the period January-September 2019 increased its imports of Corn by 11.4%. Italian imports from Hungary, Slovenia, Romania and Croatia, are growing sharply, with an overall variation of +43.8%; Ukraina, instead, has reduced its exports towards Italy.

Italy Corn importCorn Prices

Soybean consumption worldwide continues to grow

Posted on 22/11/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019/20 season, which began on October 1st, is forecast at 336.56 Mio Tons, -6% compared to the 2018/19 season.

Soybean total use is constantly growing, and given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 95.42 Mio Tons (-13%).

Production-consumption-stock-soy

Soybean production of Brazil, world’s main producer expected for 2019/20 season, should reach 123 Mio Tons (+5.1% compared to 2018/19 season). United States’ production is decreasing (19.8%). The U.S yield of land is diminishing. There is also a lower yield in Canada and India.

Yearly-Soybean-Production

Global Export

Global export of Soybean for 2019/20 season is expected practically unchanged compared to the previous season. Higher projected exports from Brazil and U.S. offset for the expected decrease from Argentina. First weekly data show a slight increase of U.S. export of Soybean in the new season.

Soybean-main-exporters

Global Import

For the new season, China, the main world Soybean importer, should import more volumes: +3% compared to 2018/19 season.

Soybean-main-importers

Italian Import

In the first 8 months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports: +27.7% compared to January-August 2018. U.S. and Brazil are the main suppliers more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

Italy-Imports-Soybean

Soybean-prices

United States: Corn used for ethanol is lowered

Posted on 17/10/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which began on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1104.01 Mio Tons, lower from the record level anticipated in the recent forecasts.

corn-production

Production is expected to decrease by 1.7% compared to the previous season, reflecting lower production in the United States (due to a decline in harvested area) and China, the main world producers. Corn production is forecast unchanged for Brazil and slightly higher for the EU-28 (+0.9%).

U.S. Corn used for ethanol is lower based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration.

ethanol

Global export

World Corn exports for the 2019-20 season are expected at 169.9 Mio Tons (-6.3% compared to the 2018-19 season). A decrease in exports is estimated for the 4 main players (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which account for 87% of the market share.

corn-export

Global import

The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce its purchases (-15.3%).
The growing trend of Mexican imports continues (+ 4.8%).

corn-import

Italian import

Data for the first seven months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +9.5% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Hungary (+13.9%) and Slovenia (+273.4%), which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine (-13.6%).

italy-corn-import

corn-price

U.S. Soybean exports recover

Posted on 18/09/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019-20 season, beginning on October 1, is forecast at 341.39 Mio Tons, -5.4% compared to the 2018-19 season.

Soybean total use record a continuous increase and, given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 99.19 Mio Tons (-11.8%).

soy-production

In the 2018-19 season the United States were the first World Soybean Producer with a production of 123.7 Mio Tons, but for the 2019-20 season a production of 98.9 Mio Tons is expected (-20.1%), on a lower yield forecast at 47.9 bushels per acre.

Brazil will surpass the United States as the largest producer of Soybeans in 2019-20, taking over the top ranking, with a share of 36% and a production of 123 Mio Tons (+ 5.1%), which also reflects the yield increase.

soy-yields

Global export

For 2018-19 Soybean exports for Brazil are lowered based on lower-than-expected shipments during the past few months. However, higher-than-expected exports by Argentina and the United States, particularly to China, are offsetting.

The weekly data show that, after a significant decrease in the first half of the season, US exports have started to recover since April, and in August they exceeded the levels of 2018. In the period January-July 2019 the United States, after the slowdown in 2018, increased Soybean export to China by + 33%.

For 2019-20, Soybean exports are expected higher for the three main exporters (Brazil, USA, Argentina).

soy-export

Global import

China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.

soy-import

Italian import

In the first half of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +23.3%, compared to January-June 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

soy-italysoy-price

Corn: U.S. exports reflect competitiveness from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine

Posted on 23/08/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1108.24 Mio Tons, deviating from the record level anticipated in May. Production is expected to decrease by 1.3% compared to the previous season, reflecting lower production in the United States and China, the main world producers.

corn-production

Ukraine production is projected record high at 36.5 Mio Tons, reflecting increases to both area and yield.

Also EU Corn production is raised, as Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria are producing more Corn than expected.

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +18.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. An overall decrease of 3.6% is expected for the new season. Only Ukraine should further increase exports.

corn-export

Monthly updates for the first half of 2019 indicate exports of 26.4 Mio Tons for the United States, -28.5% compared to January-June 2018. For 2019-20 U.S. exports are lowered (-2.4%) reflecting export competitiveness and expectations of increasing competition from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.

us-weekly

Global import

The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-10.6%). The growing trend of Mexican imports continues (+ 8.8%).

corn-import

Italian import

Data for the first five months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.4% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania.

italian-corn-import

corn-price

Record soybean production forecast for Brazil in the new season

Posted on 18/07/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

World Soybean production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on October 1, 2019, is estimated at 347.04 Mio Tons, -4.4% from the previous season.

Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as top Soybean producer, with a share of 35% due to a significant production increase (+5.1% compared to the current season). Projections for the United States are for lower planted and harvested area, and Soybean production in estimated at -15.4%. Soybean supply is slowing also for Argentina (-5.4%).

Soybean production

Global export

Global Soybean export, down 1.9% in the current season, is expected to recover in the new season (+0.7%), due to higher exports for the United States.

Looking at the 2018-19 export data, in the first 5 months of 2019 the U.S. recorded -2.7%, with lower volumes sold to China and Japan, in comparison with last year.

U.S. Soybean export

Global import

China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.

Soybean top importers

For the EU-28, imports are forecast to slow down (-4.4%). EU data for the first 5 months of 2019 show a +3.6% increase in Soybean imports.

Italian import

In the first four months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +16.8%, compared to January-April 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

Italian Soybean importsSoybeans price

Corn production: record forecasts for the new season

Posted on 23/05/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at the record level of 1133.78 Mio Tons, +1.3% compared to the current 2018-19 season. With a decrease in initial stocks and an increase in total use, final stocks are estimated at 314.71 Mio Tons (-3.4% y-o-y).

 WORLD | Corn Production, Utilization and Stocks

Corn production forecasts in the main countries estimate higher crops in the United States, Brazil and the EU-28, the first, third and fourth Country Producers respectively. Corn production in China, on the other hand, is expected to slow (1.3%).

 WORLD | Corn - Main producers

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +14.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Stability is expected for the new season (+ 0.8%).
Increased exports out of Argentina and Brazil during 2018-19 are expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of 2019-20.WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

Global import

Exports are mainly oriented to Mexico, South Korea, Vietnam and Iran. The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-14.9%).WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

Italian import

Data for the first two months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.6% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania. ITALY | Corn Import - Main suppliersCorn prices

EU Soybean import continues to be high

Posted on 26/04/2019

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Global Soybean production for 2018-19 is estimated at a record level of 360.6 Mio Tons. The slight increase compared to previous estimates, reflects favorable weather in Brazil, the world’s Soybean biggest exporter, in particular in the Rio Grande do Sul, where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Soybean production in Brazil for the 2018-19 season is expected at 117 Mio Tons. The production is lower (-4.1%) compared to the previous season.

U.S. Soybean export
to China-35% Jan-Feb 2019 y-o-y

Brazil’s exports are expected at 79.5 Mio Tons (+4.4% from the previous season) and only partially offset the lower exports expected for the United States (-11.9%). The data for the first two months of 2019 relating to US exports show a decrease compared to January-February 2018, with China (the main buyer) which reduced its purchases by 35%.

For the European Union, the second world Soybean importer after China, imports are expected to increase by 8.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. In the months of January and February 2019 there is a growth of 1.4% with a significant reduction in imports from Brazil and Canada, more than offset by imports from the United States (+ 147.7% compared to January-February 2018). Spain and Italy are the EU countries that have mainly increased imports from the US, respectively: + 63.9% and + 73.7%.

TESEO.clal.it - China is the world's largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it – China is the world’s largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it - In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO.clal.it – In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019
TESEO-Soybean-export-April-2019.pdf (3 MB)
TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019

Source: USDA, ISTAT, IHS

 

Ukraine boosts Corn exports

Posted on 17/04/2019

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Global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at 1107.4 Mio Tons, higher than the previous forecasts and +2.9% from last season. Brazil  Corn  production is raised,  reflecting improved yield prospects for  second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger area.

For the United States, the largest Corn producer in the world, production is expected at 366.3 Mio Tons (-1.3% compared to the previous season) and Corn used  to  produce  ethanol  is  lowered.

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

In 2018 the United States increased exports to all the main purchasing countries: Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan. Forecasts for the season (September 2018 – August 2019) show a weakening of US exports, reflecting competition from Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine.

The EU-28 is the main Corn importer and is increasingly dependent on imports from extra-EU countries. In 2018 the EU imported 21.7 Mio Tons of Corn, and exported 2.2 Mio Tons. The trade balance therefore shows -19.5 Mio Tons in 2018, while in 2017 it was -14.6 Mio Tons.

EU Corn imports grew by +32.4% in 2018 compared to 2017. 52% of the Corn comes from Ukraine, which exported to the EU 11.4 Mio Tons (+32.8%). Brazil, with a 22% share, is the second supplier (4.8 Mio Tons, +12.5%). European imports from the United States and Canada, third and fourth suppliers, have doubled compared to 2017.

TESEO.clal.it – Largest Corn exporters

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn Exporters

TESEO.clal.it - EU Corn Imports

TESEO.clal.it – EU Corn Imports

Corn Report - April 2019
Corn-Report-April-2019.pdf (1 MB)
Corn Report - April 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

EU Soybean import from the US: the boom continues

Posted on 25/03/2019

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Global Soybean production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at the record level of 360.1 Mio Tons, although slightly down (-0.3%) compared to last month forecast, reflecting a lower production decline expected in Brazil (-0.5 Mio Tons), given the dry weather conditions and the lower yields in the States of Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias.

U.S. Soybean production is expected at 123.7 Mio Tons. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is raised on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year.

TESEO.clal.it - Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

TESEO.clal.it – Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

European Union and China are the top destinations of US Soybean. With the entry into force of Chinese duties in July 2018, US exports to China dropped and recorded 8.3 Mio Tons in 2018 (-69% from 2017).

EU Soy import
from the U.S.1,25Mio TonsJan 2019 y-o-y

The agreement between Juncker and Trump in July 2018 supported US Soybean export to the European Union: +61% in 2018 compared to 2017, equal to 7.7 Mio Tons (51% of EU total Soybean import). The Netherlands and Spain are the main European buyers. Italy also significantly increased Soybean purchases from the US, for a total of 663,100 tons. Brazil is the second EU Soybean supplier, which imported 5.4 Mio Tons in 2018 (+7% compared to 2017).

The first data for 2019, relating to January, confirm the boom in European soybean imports from the US: 1.25 Mio Tons, +184% compared to January 2018, at an average CIF price of € 321.30 / ton.

TESEO.clal.it - US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it – US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it - EU Soybean import

TESEO.clal.it – EU Soybean import

Soybean Report - March 2019
TESEO-SOY-Report-March-2019.pdf (3 MB)
Soybean Report - March 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

Corn and Soybean: prices and market updates | March 2021

Posted on 18/03/2021

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USDA Forecast of March shows signs of stability in the Corn and Soybean markets. World production estimates have been revised slightly upwards, positively influencing the final stocks, which, however, remain at significantly lower levels than the previous year.

CORN

USDA released the March update on the Corn and Soybean markets.

World Corn production for the season 2020/21 is estimated to increase slightly from the previous forecast, due to positive changes in India, South Africa and Bangladesh. The estimates for the main producers, USA, China and Brazil, remain unchanged.

The estimate of global ending stocks confirms a decrease of -5.1% compared to the previous year.

The average selling prices from March 1st to 11th recorded in West Iowa (USA) stood at $ 205/ton, down by -0.9% compared to the previous month. In Brazil, on the other hand, the average price of Corn from March 1st to 11th was slightly higher than in February, with an average price of $260.6 / ton.

In Italy, Corn prices are substantially stable. Current prices in Bologna for Italian corn range between 229€/Ton and 235€/Ton.

corn-prod-stocks

SOY

The global ending stocks of Soybeans are revised slightly upwards, although they remain at significantly lower levels than the previous year (-12.8%). The March forecast estimates an increase in final stocks for China and Brazil, almost entirely offset by the decrease expected for Argentina.

The production estimates for the current year are revised upwards in Brazil for 1 million tons, and downwards in Argentina for 0.5 million tons. In Argentina, in fact, the harvest could be affected by the drought conditions recorded in recent weeks.

soybean-production

Average US Soybean selling prices from March 1st to 11th increased by +2.7% compared to the previous month, settling at $548.8/ Ton. Increases in local currency soybean prices also occurred in Argentina and Brazil, mainly due to inflation.

The average price of Soybeans quoted on 11 March in Bologna increased significantly to € 546/Ton, + 4.4% compared to the previous price.

For more details on the dairy, agricultural and swine markets, follow us on our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it

soybean-prices-arg

Corn and Soybean: prices and market updates | February 2021 [VIDEO]

Posted on 17/02/2021

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Corn and Soybean prices remain high in the major markets. Chinese imports of Corn could triple this year, while for the United States a reduction in Soybean stocks is estimated, of -77.2%.

Michele from the CLAL.it and TESEO Team illustrates the forecast and the market trends in the following video.

immagine-play

CORN

USDA released the February update on the Corn and Soybean markets.

Slightly more optimistic is the forecast of February 10 regarding World Corn Production 2020/21, if compared with the previous forecast. Production is now estimated to rise by 17.5 million tonnes compared to the 2019/20 season.

On the other hand, the Consumption forecast shows a slight reduction, going from + 1.7% to + 1.5%.
As a result, the erosion of the World Corn Stocks expected for the 2020/21 season is more contained (-5.4% compared to the previous year).

corn-stocks

Chinese imports of Corn could triple this year, to the advantage of the United States, whose exports to China are on the rise.
The import of the European Union (including the UK) is estimated at 15.5 million tons, 3.1 million tons less than in the 2019/20 season.

Average selling prices from February 1st to 10th recorded in West Iowa (USA) remain at high levels, standing at $ 206.5 /Ton, up + 7.1% compared to the previous month.
Also in France, the average price of Corn from February 1st to 12th is slightly higher than in January, with an average price of 209.7 € / Ton.
Current prices in Bologna for Italian corn range between 230€/Ton and 236€/Ton.

bologna-corn-price

SOY

The latest USDA Forecast estimates an increase in Soybean Consumption compared to the previous outlook. This leads to a further decrease in final stocks for the current year: -11.49 million tons compared to the 2019/20 season.

The decline in stocks is mainly attributable to the United States, for which is estimated a reduction in inventories of -77.2%  compared to the previous season.

Average Soybean prices in the US and Brazil show signs of stability.
The average selling price from February 1st to 10th in Western Illinois (USA) is $ 529.7 / Ton. The average price over the same period in Brazil stood at $ 508.4/Ton.
The average price of Soybeans quoted on February 11 in Bologna is steady at € 500/Ton.

us-soybean-price

For more details on the dairy, agricultural and swine markets, follow us on our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it.

 

Corn and Soybean: prices and market updates | January 2021

Posted on 03/02/2021

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2021 began with an increase in Corn and Soybean prices in the main global markets.
Michele of the CLAL.it and TESEO Team describes the causes in the following video.

The average prices of Corn and Soybean in January have increased significantly in the main global markets. Specifically, in the United States the price has increased by +16% for Corn and by +14.4% for Soybeans, compared to December 2020.

The increase in overseas prices of these two agricultural products is also affecting the main European and Italian markets. The average prices quoted on January 21 in Bologna are: 225 €/Ton for national Corn for zootechnical use and 498 €/Ton for national Soybeans.

These bullish trends increase the costs related to livestock feeding for farmers.

Simulated Feed Ration

What are the main reasons for these increases?

The supply of Corn and Soybean seems not able to meet the global demand.

In January, USDA revised downward the stocks of Corn and Soybean, respectively -1.8% and -1.5% compared to previous forecasts. At the end of the 2020/21 season, the stocks of these two agricultural products are estimated to decrease by -6.3% for Corn and -11.6% for Soybean.

The global production of Corn and Soybean was also revised downward compared to the December forecast, by approximately 10 million tons of Corn and 1 million tons of Soybeans.

The main causes of this revision are the drought in South America and the lower US harvests.

For more details on the dairy, agricultural and swine markets, follow us on our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it.

stock-corn-soy

Soybean: prices and market updates | November 2020 [VIDEO]

Posted on 04/12/2020

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World Soybean Production is expected to grow for the new season, driven by the United States and Brazil, while China is confirmed as the main destination for the export of Soybean.
Soy prices increased in November in the main global markets.

Michele from the CLAL Team illustrates the Soybean market trend in the following video.

Soybean Global Production for the season September 2020 – August 2021 is estimated to decrease slightly compared to the previous forecast, but it is still increasing by +7.7% compared to the 2019-20 season (USDA Forecast).

Production is expected to grow for the two main global players, Brazil (+5.6%) and the United States (+17.4%). Production estimates are positive also for Argentina and the European Union.

soybean-production

Global Export of Soybean for the 2020-21 season is estimated to increase slightly, +1.9% compared to the previous season, driven by the positive trend of US exports (+31.2%).

Exports from Brazil and Argentina are expected to decrease. The October data show a reduction in exports, respectively -50.9% and -91% compared to October 2019.

The main destination for the Soybean export remains China, which accounts for about the ⅔ of the total import. For the 2020-21 season, China is expected to increase its Import by 1.5%, reaching 100 Mio Tons. In October, China imported about 8.7 Mio Tons of Soybean, +2.5 Mio Tons compared to October 2019.

soybean-import

The European Union for the period January – September 2020 imported more than 12 Mio Tons of Soybean, recording an increase of +7.7% compared to the same period of 2019. However, for the 2020-21 season, the European Import is expected to decrease by -1.3%.

Soybean prices continue to rise in the main global markets.
The average November price in Argentina is $341 per Ton, +7% compared to the previous month and +36.4% compared to November 2019. The trend is positive also for the United States, with the USDA estimating an average seasonal price increase by over 20% for the 2020/21 season.

In Italy, the price of National Soybean has increased significantly. The average price of November in Bologna is 416€ per Ton, +7.3% compared to the previous month and +22% compared to November 2019.

Register to our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it to be always up to date with the latest information about the dairy, the agricultural and the pork market.

Thank you for following us, from Michele Badolato and the CLAL Team. 

soybean-prices

Corn: prices and market updates | November 2020 [VIDEO]

Posted on 18/11/2020

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World Corn Production and Export are expected to grow for the new season, driven by the United States and Brazil.
Corn prices increased in the USA, Argentina and some EU countries, including Italy.

Michele from the CLAL Team illustrates the Corn market trend in the following video.

copertina_EN_play

World Corn Production for the season September 2020 – August 2021 is projected at 1,144.6 Mio Tons, according to USDA. The forecast, updated in November, is slightly lower than the previous estimate, but it still shows a year-over-year rise by +2.5%.

The increase in production is driven by the United States (+6.5%) and Brazil (+7.8%). Production in the European Union, Argentina and Ukraine is expected to decrease due to drought conditions.

corn-us-outlook

The forecast of Corn Export for the 2020-21 season is positive, with an expected variation of +8.0% compared to the 2019-20 agricultural year. Also this increase is driven by the United States (+49.0%) and Brazil (+14.7%).

The European Union, in the period January – September 2020, exported 3.142.400 mio tons of corn, +15.4% compared to the first 9 months of 2019. However, for the 2020-2021 season, a significant reduction is expected. Exports from Argentina and Russia are also estimated to decrease.

corn-export

Corn prices continue to rise in the USA. The average November price in West Iowa is $156.8 per Ton, +5.1% compared to the previous month.  Also in Argentina the price rose significantly, starting from June, and the average monthly price of the Mercado Rosario is $190 per ton.

This trend is also reflected in the prices in The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Italy.  The current prices in Bologna for Italian corn range between 194€/Ton and 200€/Ton.

For more details on the dairy, agricultural and swine markets, follow us on our websites CLAL.it and TESEO.clal.it.

Corn prices Argentina

China: Soy consumption at record levels in 2020/21 season

Posted on 21/05/2020

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Global Production

Soybean Global production for the season 2019/20 is projected at 336.11 Mio Tons (-6.7% on 2018/19), slightly decreasing compared to the previous estimates.

Brazil Soybean production is estimated at 124 Mio Tons for the season 2019/20 (+4.2% on 2018/19).

The increase in production is driven by the increase in the harvested area, +3% compared the last season, and a higher yield per hectare (+3%). The only exception is the Rio Grande do Sul State, where a decrease in production is expected due to drought.

Soybean production for the United States and Argentina is expected to decrease compared both to the previous season, respectively to 96.78 Mio Tons (-19.7%), and 51 Mio Tons (-7.8%), and to April estimates. In Argentina, unfavourable weather conditions have reduced yields by -10%.

TESEO.it - Soybean Top Producers

TESEO.it – Soybean Top Producers

Global soybean production in 2020/21 is forecast to surge to 362.8 million tons, up 8 percent from the 2019/20 estimate. For United States and Brazil, the main producing Countries, it is expected an increase in harvested area and yields. Production is estimated at 131 Mio Tons for Brazil, and at 121 Mio Tons for the US.

TESEO.it - Map of Soybean Yields

TESEO.it – Map of Soybean Yields

Consumption, Export and Prices

Soybean consumption for the 2019/20 season is stable at 348 Mio Tons, while for the 2020/21 it is expected at a record level.

The world export of Soybean 2019/20 is expected to increase (+3.8% on 2018-19), reaching the level of 153.98 Mio Tons.

Brazil’s exports are estimated at 84 Mio Tons, (+12.6% on 2018-19), reflecting the increased trade during March and April, supported by a greater competitiveness in the markets due to the weaker currency.

On the contrary, US exports, which are suffering from the competition with Brazil, are estimated at 45.59 Mio Tons, (-4.2% on 2018/19).

Brazil’s average export prices for March 2020 are down to $345 per ton, while the US prices are slightly higher at $366 per ton.

TESEO.it - Average Soybean Export Prices

TESEO.it – Average Soybean Export Prices

In 2020/21, China is expected to account for over half of global consumption growth, mainly due to the expansion of the Chinese swine herd, which is recovering from African swine fever.

Corn: the demand for Ethanol falls down

Posted on 21/04/2020

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Global Corn Production

Corn production for the season 2019-20 is estimated at 1113.02 Mio Tons, adjusted higher compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 0.9% compared to the previous season.

Global Corn production is forecasted up with larger crops in the European Union and Belarus more than offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Laos.

The US Corn production forecast is unchanged compared to the last estimates (-4.5% compared 2018/2019 season). Some operators believe that Coronavirus should not  delay farmers from planting. The USDA has estimated Corn acreage in the US for 2020-21 (September-August) at 96.99 million acres, 4% higher on year, and the highest after 2012-13. The U.S. season-average farm price decreased to $3.60 per bushel, down $0,20 compared to last season.

Corn production forecast is expected unchanged for China, Brazil and Argentina compared to the previous outlook.

Following the above-average rains in March, CONAB estimates good harvests in Mato Grosso area in Brazil, which represents approximately 46 percent of Brazil’s second-season crop. In the areas located south of Mato Grosso, March rains were below-average.

CLAL.it - Map Corn Yields

CLAL.it – Map Corn Yields

Global Corn Export: slight increase compared to the last outlook

Corn export for the season 2019-20 is projected slightly higher compared to last estimates, but it is still lower compared to the 2018-19 season.

April’s export forecast shows an increase for UE and Argentina, while a decrease for Russia.

Corn export outlook for US and Brazil is unchanged compared to the last forecast, confirming a negative trend (US -16.5% e Brazil -9.4% vs season 2018-19).

CLAL.it - Corn Export

CLAL.it – Corn Export

ETHANOL: Fall in demand

Following the collapse in the demand for gasoline, a domino effect has been seen on the demand for ethanol, which led to a reduction in production and the closure of several plants. According to Geoff Cooper, President and CEO of the RFA (Renewable Fuels Association), the ethanol industry could lose $ 10 Billion due to COVID-19 related issues. Some operators expect a 3 billion gallon decrease in ethanol production for 2020, with a drop of about 20% compared to 2019.

CLAL.it - Production of Ethanol in U.S.

CLAL.it – Production of Ethanol in U.S.

Futures are reflecting the negative trend of the market. CME Futures of July 20, which were $3.79 on February 25, have reached the level of $3.22 on April 20.

 

Soybean production expected +7.7% in Brazil, world’s main producer

Posted on 26/03/2020

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Soybean production increase in South America

Soybean global production for the season 2019/20 is forecast at 341,76 Mio Tons, -4.7% compared to 2018/19 season, but increasing compared to the previous estimates. This increase reflects the higher projected production in Brazil and Argentina.

Further increase in production expected for Brazil and Argentina in the season 2019/2020

For both South American Countries is expected a further increase in production of 1 Mio Ton compared to February prediction, reaching respectively 126 Mio Tons in Brazil and 54 Mio Tons in Argentina.

Brazil confirms itself as the world’s main Soybean producer in the 2019/2020 season, with an expected increment of 7.7% compared to the previous season. The increase of production in Argentina is mainly due to overall favourable conditions in higher-yielding central and north-western farming areas. Forecast for Soybean production in the US is unchanged at 96.84 Mio Tons (-19.6% compared to the previous season).

Considering a higher Soybean production in South America and an expected steady trend for consumption, it is expected a smaller decrease in stocks compared to the previous estimates.

Soybean export is positive, China main destination

Global Soybean export is expected to increase, +2.4% compared to the last season, driven by the higher exports for the main exporting Countries: US (+4.4%) and Brazil (+3.2%). This increase largely offset the projected decrease in export for Argentina (-9.9%).

China, which has accounted for the 57% of world Soybean import in the season 2018/2019, imported 88 Mio Tons in 2019, of which 57.7 Mio Tons from Brazil (65% of the total) and 17 Mio Tons from US (19% of the total). China’s average import price in December 2019 was 408 $/Ton.

TESEO - Soybean Production and Export

TESEO – Soybean Production and Export

Corn: market rally in the coming months?

Posted on 26/02/2020

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Market Trends and Forecasts
World Corn production expected to decrease by 1%.

World corn production for the season 2019/20 is estimated at 1111.59 Mio Tons, unchanged compared to the last outlook. The overall production is expected to decrease by 1% compared to the previous season.

CLAL.it - Corn Production

CLAL.it – Corn Production

The US lower Corn production forecast (-4.5%) could limits the surplus available to the export, which is expected in significant decrease. Considering that US Mais production accounts for 31.3% of the total production, this trend could have an impact over global prices.

According to USDA data, Chinese Corn production for the season 2019/20 is projected higher by 1.3% compared to last season, reaching 260.77 Mio Tons, but still not enough to completely meet domestic demand.

In Brazil, Corn collection has been already completed for about 50% of total harvested areas. Local farmers are waiting for adequate rains, which could prevent crop loss.

Favorable climate conditions in Argentina are supporting Corn production, estimated at 50 Mio Tons for the current season, slightly decreasing compared to the excellent 2018/19 season.

Production in Ukraine, the fourth world Corn exporter, is expected to be at the same high levels of the previous season. Ukraine accounts only for the 3% of the global Corn production but it has a significant share on the global Corn export (19%).

Global Corn stocks, according to USDA data, are lowered for the third consecutive year.

CLAL.it - Corn Production and Export

CLAL.it – Corn Production and Export

Export in decline for the main global Players

World Corn export for the season 2019/20 is expected lower compared to the last season. The main exporting countries are reducing their estimates: -16.5% for the US, -14.3% for Argentina and -6.9% for Brazil.

The delay of the brazilian second crop could affect the export of the United States. The exported volumes from the US could overcome the current estimates if the brazilian supply will not be enough to satisfy the demand from trade partners, or if the trade deal US-China will lead to higher chinese purchases.
Projections for trade flows with China are still uncertain following the current issues related to the Coronavirus outbreaks.

CLAL.it - Corn Export

CLAL.it – Corn Export

Market uncertainty, Futures quotes slowing down

The ongoing spread of the Coronavirus through China are generating uncertainty in the financial and commodity markets. This uncertainty is also reflected in the futures’ market, which have maintained a range between $3.95 and $4.05 from mid-December until the first outbreaks of the Coronavirus in late January.  Since the emergence of the disease has begun, old crop futures continue to grind lower with July futures closing on February 25 at $3.79.

Corn July 2020 Futures - CME Group

Corn July 2020 Futures – CME Group

Futures highlight closed contracts with lower prices compared to the previous weeks. Considering the lower Corn production expected for the season 2019/20, it could be possible to see a market Rally on Corn quotes in the next few months

Soybean: Prices on the rise in the new season

Posted on 20/01/2020

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019/2020 season, is forecast at 337.70 Mio Tons, -5.7% compared to the 2018/2019 season, but it is still slightly above the level of the previous forecast.

Soybean total use is continuously growing, and given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 96.67 Mio Tons (-12,34%).

Soybean production in Brazil, expected to be the world’s main producer in the 2019/2020 season, should reach 123 Mio Tons (+5.1% compared to 2018/2019 season). United States’ production is decreasing (19.6%) due to the diminishing of U.S yield of land, especially in North Dakota and South Dakota.

Soybean Production

Global Export

Global export of Soybean for 219/2020 season is expected almost unchanged compared to the previous season. Higher predicted exports from Brazil and U.S. (overall +1,5%) compensate for the expected decrease from Argentina.

Brazil average export price in October is 0.37$ per Kg, while U.S. average export price is 0.36$ per Kg, both prices are increasing compared to last month.

Soybean exporters

Global Import

For the new season, China, the main world Soybean importer, should import more volumes: 85 Mio Tons, +3% compared to 2018/2019 season. China’s average import price in November is 0.40$ per Kg.

Soybean Import

Italian Import

In the first 10 months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports: +29% compared to January-October 2018. Italy has recorded an overall variation of +84.2% of the imported volumes from U.S. and Brazil, which remain the main suppliers.

Soybean Italian Import

Soybean Prices

 

 

World Corn production expected to decrease

Posted on 19/12/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts
World Production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which began on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1108.62 Mio Tons, +0.6% from November outlook. 

Production is expected to decrease by 1.4% compared to the previous season.

Corn World ProductionThe two main world producers of Corn have opposite trends: a lower production is expected for United States (-5.3%), partially offset by higher expectations for China (+1.3%), reflecting increases to both cultivated area and yield. Corn production forecast is unchanged for Brazil and slightly higher for the EU-28 (+0.5%).

U.S. ethanol production is expected to be higher for the months of November and December.

ethanol productionGlobal Export

World Corn exports for the 2019-20 season are expected at 166.51 Mio Tons, -7.6% compared to the 2018-19 season, lower from the record level anticipated in the recent forecasts.
A decrease in exports is estimated for the 4 main players (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), with an overall reduction of 8.3%.

corn exportGlobal Import

The European Union, the main Corn importer, should reduce its purchases (-16.7%).
The growing trend of imports continues for Mexico (+4.8%) and Vietnam (+12.7%), which now ranks 4th among the global.
World Corn imports are expected higher (+2.9%) for the 2019-20 season.

Corn importItalian Import

Italy for the period January-September 2019 increased its imports of Corn by 11.4%. Italian imports from Hungary, Slovenia, Romania and Croatia, are growing sharply, with an overall variation of +43.8%; Ukraina, instead, has reduced its exports towards Italy.

Italy Corn importCorn Prices

Soybean consumption worldwide continues to grow

Posted on 22/11/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019/20 season, which began on October 1st, is forecast at 336.56 Mio Tons, -6% compared to the 2018/19 season.

Soybean total use is constantly growing, and given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 95.42 Mio Tons (-13%).

Production-consumption-stock-soy

Soybean production of Brazil, world’s main producer expected for 2019/20 season, should reach 123 Mio Tons (+5.1% compared to 2018/19 season). United States’ production is decreasing (19.8%). The U.S yield of land is diminishing. There is also a lower yield in Canada and India.

Yearly-Soybean-Production

Global Export

Global export of Soybean for 2019/20 season is expected practically unchanged compared to the previous season. Higher projected exports from Brazil and U.S. offset for the expected decrease from Argentina. First weekly data show a slight increase of U.S. export of Soybean in the new season.

Soybean-main-exporters

Global Import

For the new season, China, the main world Soybean importer, should import more volumes: +3% compared to 2018/19 season.

Soybean-main-importers

Italian Import

In the first 8 months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports: +27.7% compared to January-August 2018. U.S. and Brazil are the main suppliers more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

Italy-Imports-Soybean

Soybean-prices

United States: Corn used for ethanol is lowered

Posted on 17/10/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which began on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1104.01 Mio Tons, lower from the record level anticipated in the recent forecasts.

corn-production

Production is expected to decrease by 1.7% compared to the previous season, reflecting lower production in the United States (due to a decline in harvested area) and China, the main world producers. Corn production is forecast unchanged for Brazil and slightly higher for the EU-28 (+0.9%).

U.S. Corn used for ethanol is lower based on weekly production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration.

ethanol

Global export

World Corn exports for the 2019-20 season are expected at 169.9 Mio Tons (-6.3% compared to the 2018-19 season). A decrease in exports is estimated for the 4 main players (United States, Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine), which account for 87% of the market share.

corn-export

Global import

The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce its purchases (-15.3%).
The growing trend of Mexican imports continues (+ 4.8%).

corn-import

Italian import

Data for the first seven months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +9.5% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Hungary (+13.9%) and Slovenia (+273.4%), which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine (-13.6%).

italy-corn-import

corn-price

U.S. Soybean exports recover

Posted on 18/09/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

Global Soybean production for 2019-20 season, beginning on October 1, is forecast at 341.39 Mio Tons, -5.4% compared to the 2018-19 season.

Soybean total use record a continuous increase and, given the lower expected production, ending stocks should reach 99.19 Mio Tons (-11.8%).

soy-production

In the 2018-19 season the United States were the first World Soybean Producer with a production of 123.7 Mio Tons, but for the 2019-20 season a production of 98.9 Mio Tons is expected (-20.1%), on a lower yield forecast at 47.9 bushels per acre.

Brazil will surpass the United States as the largest producer of Soybeans in 2019-20, taking over the top ranking, with a share of 36% and a production of 123 Mio Tons (+ 5.1%), which also reflects the yield increase.

soy-yields

Global export

For 2018-19 Soybean exports for Brazil are lowered based on lower-than-expected shipments during the past few months. However, higher-than-expected exports by Argentina and the United States, particularly to China, are offsetting.

The weekly data show that, after a significant decrease in the first half of the season, US exports have started to recover since April, and in August they exceeded the levels of 2018. In the period January-July 2019 the United States, after the slowdown in 2018, increased Soybean export to China by + 33%.

For 2019-20, Soybean exports are expected higher for the three main exporters (Brazil, USA, Argentina).

soy-export

Global import

China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.

soy-import

Italian import

In the first half of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +23.3%, compared to January-June 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

soy-italysoy-price

Corn: U.S. exports reflect competitiveness from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine

Posted on 23/08/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at 1108.24 Mio Tons, deviating from the record level anticipated in May. Production is expected to decrease by 1.3% compared to the previous season, reflecting lower production in the United States and China, the main world producers.

corn-production

Ukraine production is projected record high at 36.5 Mio Tons, reflecting increases to both area and yield.

Also EU Corn production is raised, as Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria are producing more Corn than expected.

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +18.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. An overall decrease of 3.6% is expected for the new season. Only Ukraine should further increase exports.

corn-export

Monthly updates for the first half of 2019 indicate exports of 26.4 Mio Tons for the United States, -28.5% compared to January-June 2018. For 2019-20 U.S. exports are lowered (-2.4%) reflecting export competitiveness and expectations of increasing competition from Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine.

us-weekly

Global import

The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-10.6%). The growing trend of Mexican imports continues (+ 8.8%).

corn-import

Italian import

Data for the first five months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.4% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania.

italian-corn-import

corn-price

Record soybean production forecast for Brazil in the new season

Posted on 18/07/2019

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CLAL Soybean report

World production

World Soybean production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on October 1, 2019, is estimated at 347.04 Mio Tons, -4.4% from the previous season.

Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as top Soybean producer, with a share of 35% due to a significant production increase (+5.1% compared to the current season). Projections for the United States are for lower planted and harvested area, and Soybean production in estimated at -15.4%. Soybean supply is slowing also for Argentina (-5.4%).

Soybean production

Global export

Global Soybean export, down 1.9% in the current season, is expected to recover in the new season (+0.7%), due to higher exports for the United States.

Looking at the 2018-19 export data, in the first 5 months of 2019 the U.S. recorded -2.7%, with lower volumes sold to China and Japan, in comparison with last year.

U.S. Soybean export

Global import

China, the main world Soybean importer, is expected to increase its imports in the new season: +2.4% compared to 2018-19 season.

Soybean top importers

For the EU-28, imports are forecast to slow down (-4.4%). EU data for the first 5 months of 2019 show a +3.6% increase in Soybean imports.

Italian import

In the first four months of 2019, Italy increased Soybean imports +16.8%, compared to January-April 2018. The United States and Brazil are the main suppliers, more than offsetting the sharp decline in purchases from Canada.

Italian Soybean importsSoybeans price

Corn production: record forecasts for the new season

Posted on 23/05/2019

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Market Trends and Forecasts

World production

World Corn production for the 2019-20 season, which will begin on September 1, 2019, is estimated at the record level of 1133.78 Mio Tons, +1.3% compared to the current 2018-19 season. With a decrease in initial stocks and an increase in total use, final stocks are estimated at 314.71 Mio Tons (-3.4% y-o-y).

 WORLD | Corn Production, Utilization and Stocks

Corn production forecasts in the main countries estimate higher crops in the United States, Brazil and the EU-28, the first, third and fourth Country Producers respectively. Corn production in China, on the other hand, is expected to slow (1.3%).

 WORLD | Corn - Main producers

Global export

In the 2018-19 season, world corn exports are up sharply: +14.5%, according to estimates at 31 August 2019, in view of significant growth for Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine. Stability is expected for the new season (+ 0.8%).
Increased exports out of Argentina and Brazil during 2018-19 are expected to limit U.S. exports during the first half of 2019-20.WORLD | Corn Top Exporters - Yearly trend

Global import

Exports are mainly oriented to Mexico, South Korea, Vietnam and Iran. The European Union, the main importer of Corn, in the new 2019-20 season should reduce purchases (-14.9%).WORLD | Corn Top Importers - Yearly trend

Italian import

Data for the first two months of 2019 of Italian imports of Corn recorded an overall increase of +4.6% y-o-y and showed strong growth from Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, which more than offset a decrease in volumes imported from Ukraine and Romania. ITALY | Corn Import - Main suppliersCorn prices

EU Soybean import continues to be high

Posted on 26/04/2019

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Global Soybean production for 2018-19 is estimated at a record level of 360.6 Mio Tons. The slight increase compared to previous estimates, reflects favorable weather in Brazil, the world’s Soybean biggest exporter, in particular in the Rio Grande do Sul, where the crop is in pod-filling and maturation stages. Soybean production in Brazil for the 2018-19 season is expected at 117 Mio Tons. The production is lower (-4.1%) compared to the previous season.

U.S. Soybean export
to China-35% Jan-Feb 2019 y-o-y

Brazil’s exports are expected at 79.5 Mio Tons (+4.4% from the previous season) and only partially offset the lower exports expected for the United States (-11.9%). The data for the first two months of 2019 relating to US exports show a decrease compared to January-February 2018, with China (the main buyer) which reduced its purchases by 35%.

For the European Union, the second world Soybean importer after China, imports are expected to increase by 8.3% compared to the 2017-18 season. In the months of January and February 2019 there is a growth of 1.4% with a significant reduction in imports from Brazil and Canada, more than offset by imports from the United States (+ 147.7% compared to January-February 2018). Spain and Italy are the EU countries that have mainly increased imports from the US, respectively: + 63.9% and + 73.7%.

TESEO.clal.it - China is the world's largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it – China is the world’s largest soybean buyer

TESEO.clal.it - In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO.clal.it – In the first two months of 2019 the EU soybean import grew by +1.4% and comes almost entirely from the United States

TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019
TESEO-Soybean-export-April-2019.pdf (3 MB)
TESEO - Soybean export - April 2019

Source: USDA, ISTAT, IHS

 

Ukraine boosts Corn exports

Posted on 17/04/2019

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Global Corn production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at 1107.4 Mio Tons, higher than the previous forecasts and +2.9% from last season. Brazil  Corn  production is raised,  reflecting improved yield prospects for  second-crop corn. Argentina corn is higher based on expectations of larger area.

For the United States, the largest Corn producer in the world, production is expected at 366.3 Mio Tons (-1.3% compared to the previous season) and Corn used  to  produce  ethanol  is  lowered.

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

TESEO.clal.it – U.S. Ethanol production

In 2018 the United States increased exports to all the main purchasing countries: Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan. Forecasts for the season (September 2018 – August 2019) show a weakening of US exports, reflecting competition from Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine.

The EU-28 is the main Corn importer and is increasingly dependent on imports from extra-EU countries. In 2018 the EU imported 21.7 Mio Tons of Corn, and exported 2.2 Mio Tons. The trade balance therefore shows -19.5 Mio Tons in 2018, while in 2017 it was -14.6 Mio Tons.

EU Corn imports grew by +32.4% in 2018 compared to 2017. 52% of the Corn comes from Ukraine, which exported to the EU 11.4 Mio Tons (+32.8%). Brazil, with a 22% share, is the second supplier (4.8 Mio Tons, +12.5%). European imports from the United States and Canada, third and fourth suppliers, have doubled compared to 2017.

TESEO.clal.it – Largest Corn exporters

TESEO.clal.it – Global Corn Exporters

TESEO.clal.it - EU Corn Imports

TESEO.clal.it – EU Corn Imports

Corn Report - April 2019
Corn-Report-April-2019.pdf (1 MB)
Corn Report - April 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT

EU Soybean import from the US: the boom continues

Posted on 25/03/2019

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Global Soybean production for the 2018-19 season is estimated at the record level of 360.1 Mio Tons, although slightly down (-0.3%) compared to last month forecast, reflecting a lower production decline expected in Brazil (-0.5 Mio Tons), given the dry weather conditions and the lower yields in the States of Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias.

U.S. Soybean production is expected at 123.7 Mio Tons. Soybean oil used for biodiesel is raised on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year.

TESEO.clal.it - Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

TESEO.clal.it – Global Soybean Production, Utilization and Stocks

European Union and China are the top destinations of US Soybean. With the entry into force of Chinese duties in July 2018, US exports to China dropped and recorded 8.3 Mio Tons in 2018 (-69% from 2017).

EU Soy import
from the U.S.1,25Mio TonsJan 2019 y-o-y

The agreement between Juncker and Trump in July 2018 supported US Soybean export to the European Union: +61% in 2018 compared to 2017, equal to 7.7 Mio Tons (51% of EU total Soybean import). The Netherlands and Spain are the main European buyers. Italy also significantly increased Soybean purchases from the US, for a total of 663,100 tons. Brazil is the second EU Soybean supplier, which imported 5.4 Mio Tons in 2018 (+7% compared to 2017).

The first data for 2019, relating to January, confirm the boom in European soybean imports from the US: 1.25 Mio Tons, +184% compared to January 2018, at an average CIF price of € 321.30 / ton.

TESEO.clal.it - US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it – US Soybean export

TESEO.clal.it - EU Soybean import

TESEO.clal.it – EU Soybean import

Soybean Report - March 2019
TESEO-SOY-Report-March-2019.pdf (3 MB)
Soybean Report - March 2019

Source: USDA, IHS, ISTAT